The U.S. Balancing Role in Cross-Strait Relations: The Irony of "Muddling Through"

Abstract

This paper provides a conceptualization of cross-Strait relations during the first decade of the twenty-first century. In particular, it traces the path by which the Bush administration came to play a balancing role in cross-Strait relations. As will be seen, there is more than a little irony about the current state of cross-Strait relations. First, the Bush administration`s policy toward the conflict between China and Taiwan has been measured and primarily reactive, in contrast to its aggressive initiatives elsewhere, suggesting a policy of ”muddling through.” Second, President George W Bush has evidently become upset with President Chen Shui-bian on several occasions for acting like, well, President Bush: appealing to his base constituency and being ”bold” in foreign affairs. Finally and more analytically, a policy of muddling through (which can be discerned in Beijing and Taipei as well as in Washington) does not imply very good policymaking, especially in such a vital area as the relations between Taiwan and China. Yet, at least so far, muddling through seems to have worked tolerably well in the sense that crises in cross-Strait relations have been defused and that they now appear fairly stable, despite the fundamental disagreement between Being and Taipei over Taiwan`s sovereignty.