China in the North Korean Nuclear Quagmire: Rethinking Chinese Influence on North Korea

Abstract

In this article, we argue that Chinese influence on the North Korean nuclear quagmire has become more limited while U.S. influence has grown larger than that of China. Since Kim Jong Il saw his country`s nuclear program as the ultimate guarantee of his regime`s survival, he was not susceptible to dissuasion by the Chinese, who he distrusted. Repeated Chinese warnings and diplomatic pressure failed to dissuade North Korea from conducting missile and nuclear tests. U.S. coercion, on the other hand, could directly threaten Kim Jong Il`s political survival, while U.S. appeasement would ease his insecurity. Thus Pyongyang did not listen to Chinese warnings but manipulated China`s mediation to perform what might be described as nuclear brinkmanship to attract the attention of the United States. China had no choice, but to attempt active mediation in order to maintain regional stability and consolidate its own geopolitical interests.