Russia`s Foreign Policy Surge: Causes and Implications

Abstract

This paper proposes a domestic electoral explanation for Russia`s foreign policy surge during Vladimir Patio c second term. It argues that neither the rising power of Russia nor the incessant Western encroachment on Russia`s core interests (international-level explanations) can fully account for the abrupt surge that shocked observers around the world. Instead, it points out the significance of Putin`s succession and the domestic need to appeal to anti- Western sentiment during an election campaign in Russia`s switch to a more assertive foreign policy The international-level explanations provide insufficient reason for the abruptness and timing of the surge. A comparison is also made with China, a similarly situated continental power; to demonstrate that (f international factors had been sufficient to provoke such a surge, Being would have taken a much more assertive attitude toward the West than Moscow The fact that this has not happened points to a major difference between Russia and China: the lack of electoral competition and hence the need to whip up anti-Western sentiment in China. There has been no moderation in Russia`s foreign policy after the 2007 and 2008 elections, despite the windows of opportunity opened up by the electoral cycle. This is attributed to the inherent tension in a diarchy, the ratchet effect, and the unfavorable international environment It is asserted that f the current window of opportunity is shut, and as time goes by Russian politicians get geared up once again for electoral competition, the chances of a rapprochement between Russia and the West will grow even dimmer.