Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
https://ah.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/104715
DC Field | Value | Language |
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dc.contributor | 統計所 | |
dc.creator | 鄭天澤;李旭煌 | zh_TW |
dc.creator | Jeng, Tian-Tzer;Lee, Shiung-Hwang | |
dc.date | 1995-10 | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2016-12-09T02:25:04Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2016-12-09T02:25:04Z | - |
dc.date.issued | 2016-12-09T02:25:04Z | - |
dc.identifier.uri | http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/104715 | - |
dc.description.abstract | 本文針對台灣地區出國觀光旅客整體及各主要市場需求,分別建立預測模式。我們考慮下列六種預測方法:簡算法、單變量時間序列模式、轉移函數模式、時間趨勢模式、指數平滑法以及計量經濟模式,除利用各類模式選取準則如AIC、SBC等來選取最適模式外,並以平均絕對百分誤差(MAPE)、根均方百分誤差(RMSPE)、方向變化誤差(Direction of Change Error)以及趨勢變化誤差(Trend Change Error)來評估各方法預測能力,從中選出最佳模式並進行預測整合分析。 | |
dc.format.extent | 2042849 bytes | - |
dc.format.mimetype | application/pdf | - |
dc.relation | 國立政治大學學報,71,179-210 | |
dc.title | 台灣地區出國觀光旅客需求預測模式之比較分析 | zh_TW |
dc.title.alternative | On Comparison of Forecasting Models for Outward Tourism Demand of Taiwan Area | |
dc.type | article | |
item.grantfulltext | open | - |
item.openairetype | article | - |
item.fulltext | With Fulltext | - |
item.openairecristype | http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_18cf | - |
item.cerifentitytype | Publications | - |
Appears in Collections: | 期刊論文 |
Files in This Item:
File | Description | Size | Format | |
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71-179-210.pdf | 1.99 MB | Adobe PDF2 | View/Open |
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