尖閣／釣魚台問題を中心とした第二次安倍政権下の日中関係

Abstract

中日兩國間處理關釣魚台的爭議，除了文攻也有武嚇，尤其後者的持續與升級引發國際社會的憂慮，擔心第三次中日戰爭發展成第三次世界大戰。中國在安倍上台後，仍加強前進釣魚台的行動以施壓日本。安倍政府也升高警備加強因應，參議院勝選後亦未見鬆懈。然迥異於民主黨時期，中國的反日民族主義在安倍上台後銷聲匿跡。此顯示中國雖強化進入釣魚台的行動，但無意訴諸軍事解決。然由於釣魚台所引發的緊張，有助安倍推動國內政治議程，再加上日本經濟近來有所起色，未來或許出現富強的日本。這正是中國擔心之事，但目前已騎虎難下。目前中日兩國的釣魚台對立屬於「排除大眾動員」、「儀式性」、「可控管」的危機，故此區域得以暫保蘊含著緊張的和平。

Tension between Japan and China surrounding the Senkakus has raised international concerns, especially on the possibility of military conflict, which at worst can develop into a third world war. Beijing has been enhancing inroads into the Senkaku waters since Abe returned to power. Abe responded accordingly by strengthening guard against Chinese actions. However, the absence of such nationalism as anti-Japan demonstrations from recent confrontations suggests that Beijing is not seeking a fight for final resolution. The likelihood of a Sino-Japanese war is low, at least for the near future. The Senkakus tension provides Tokyo a legitimate chance to carry out its domestic political agenda for a normal nation. Coupled with its economy recovery, a rich and strong Japan is re-emerging. A resurgent Japan in close proximity is surely the last thing China desires, but Beijing has found it hard to back down now. The nature of the current Senkakus crisis is characterized by being `non-mass mobilizing,` `ritualized` and `controllable.` Thus, it arguably has ensured a tensioned peace for the region.