釣魚台列島（尖閣諸島）国有化後の日本対中国態勢－－ソフトランディングへの試案を兼ねて

Abstract

安倍出任首相之後，外交上毫不掩飾地採取對抗中國態勢。兩國關係陷入40 年來的最低點。其導火線雖歸因於釣魚台列嶼領有之糾紛，但更真切的原因可能是兩國皆欲成為一個軍事強國。據此中國當可恢復歷史上的光輝燦爛。日本則可排除中國之陰影並可脫離戰敗境遇，洗刷敗戰汙名。於此復加：美國揭示重回亞洲、或稱再平衡政策，以及俄羅斯逐步顯示其有意恢復昔日超級大國地位。因之，中日之對立讓西太平洋區域之安保情勢，帶來更多變數與複雜多端。中日兩國關係在最近的將來，如無戲劇性變化，雙方當同陷膠著和突破相互矛盾之死胡同中。有關兩國間今後之走向，以下之選項，該係可能性之一。亦即，戰爭、訴訟、仲介、擱置（重回過去）、交涉談判是也。當然，由會談協商以進行關係改善，該是最受期待，亦是最為明智之舉。

Since after Abe took up the post of prime minister of Japan, diplomatically he blatantly takes up the antagonistic position against China. The relationship between those two countries has been bogged down and in the worst situation ever in the past 40 years. Although the direct cause of the strained relationship was the dispute over Diaoyutai Islands’ sovereignty, the real cause of this dispute might be their desire to be a militarily powerful country. If China won the sovereignty of Diaoyutai Islands, she can retain her glorious Chinese history. If Japan won, she could get away from the shadow of China and also depart from the defeat she suffered during WWII, and wash away her infamy. The American government now has the policy of “Rebalancing of Asia,” which means returning American presence to Asia and assisting in the balancing of power. Russia gradually implies their intention to return to being a powerful country as it used to be as well. Therefore, the confrontation between China and Japan makes the security of the Western Pacific area even more complicated. If there are no dramatic changes in the near future in the relationship between China and Japan, they might be trapped in a stalemate situation of conflict. The possible future of the delicate Sino-Japan relationship might be one of war, law suits, mediation, or negotiation. The most favored and wisest way to improve the relationship would be through consultative meetings.