2014 年台湾統一地方選挙及び中国の対台湾政策の展望－－グリーン陣営からの考察

Abstract

台灣的大型選舉對北京的對台政策都會產生很大的影響。2014 年的九合一選舉雖是地方性的，但其種類與規模皆是前所未有的，因此被認為是觀察2016 年總統大選的重要指標。而2014 年11 月29 日選舉的結果是，不管席次或得票率皆出現國民黨慘敗而民進黨大勝的結果。這也是北京所不樂見的。那麼，面對這種狀況，北京的對台政策是否會面臨一番衝擊而改變？本文認為，北京對台政策的內容或有改變，但架構與基調因會維持，理由是基於習近平的性格養成、政治體制以及外在大環境的約制，目前仍會持續既有穩中求進的基調，在對台政策上仍會依循既有大方針，來包圍與吸納台灣，並軟硬兩手，並藉由心理戰謀台，以求不戰而屈人之兵。

Taiwan’s big-scaled elections have always had strong impacts on China’s Taiwan policy. The 2014 nine-in-one elections were a collection of local elections, but due to their variety and unprecedented scales, it was considered as an important indicator to the 2016 presidential elections. On November 29th, 2014, the KMT was fiercely defeated both in seats and votes won, thus giving way to a big triumph for the DPP. This is an undesirable result for Beijing. Hence, under these circumstances, one question will be raised: will the 2014 elections bring about strong impacts and push Beijing’s Taiwan policy to change? This paper indicates that even though there will be some slight changes of its contents, the policy’s fundamentals and framework will remain consistent. Some reasons are: Chinese President Xi Jinping’s mindset and the constraints of Chinese political institutions and the external challenges he has to face. This paper argues that Beijing will keep its Taiwan policy progressive with stability. It will follow up the given track and take a carrot-and-stick approach, with psychological tactics, to contain and absorb Taiwan into its embrace, and finally, to win the battle without shedding a drop of blood.