2015 年のASEAN 経済共同体－－事実か幻想か

Abstract

2015 將建立完成的東協經濟共同體（ASEAN Economic Community, AEC）為東協成立近50 年的夢想，目標在於建立單一市場，除了具備高度競爭能力外，也期待能發展為平衡的經濟發展機制，完全整合進入全球經濟，使東協在危機來臨時，可以集體行動，共同應付來自外部的各種經濟風險與外在衝擊。對東協組織而言，更重要者為提升內部治理能力，各國更應戮力思考後東協2015 年（Beyond ASEAN 2015）的政治穩定、經濟成長、社會發展，將是影響東協共同體成敗的關鍵性因素。雖然本區域的美、日、中等大國角力方興未艾，但東協組織不妄自菲薄。以東協擁有之龐大資源與人口紅利為基礎，加之「東協中心」的積極思維模式，可望達成亞洲開發銀行所預測2030 年東協可達今日已開發國家的生活水準，2050 年成為全球第四大經濟體，以其旺盛的企圖心與當前先進國家缺乏的豐沛資源，東協經濟共同體確實是指日可待，絕非只是幻象而已。

ASEAN is committed to implement the ASEAN Economic Community by the end of 2015 and much has already been done. While there are challenges ahead, ASEAN’s commitment remains undiminished. The AEC is set to “establish ASEAN as a single market and production base with the goal of making ASEAN more dynamic and competitive.” In addition, the economic community anticipates both the equitable economic development and the full integration into global economy. Before achieving the final goal, 10 ASEAN heads of state are committed to creating a “Post-2015 Vision.” The Leaders’ goal is to realize a community that is “politically cohesive, economically integrated, socially responsible and a truly people-oriented, people-centered and rules-based ASEAN.” While the region is largely influenced by the power struggles between major countries like the US, Japan and China, AEC seeks “ASEAN Centrality” as the basis to its development. With abundant resources and mass population, ASEAN has the potential to become developed countries by 2030 as Asian Development Bank predicted and by 2050, the fourth largest economic community. This paper contends that, being ambitious and resourceful, AEC is not an illusion.