高速鐵路對土地使用之短期影響分析─台灣之實證研究

Abstract

多年來，交通運輸與土地使用之交互影響關係受學界所廣泛討論，本研究主要探討高速鐵路與土地使用之交互影響關係。關於高鐵對土地使用影響之研究，分為兩大類別，分別為建立模式預測未來地區發展狀況，以及實證分析高鐵通車後對地區的影響效果。過去研究指出，高鐵營運後，可能對土地使用產生之影響包括：無顯著之土地使用改變、地區間互動改變、聚集效果（Cluster effect）、離散效果(Disparties)以及「隧道效果(Tunnel effect)」或「廊道效果(Corridor effect) 」。\n\n 本研究為以階層線性模型分析高鐵通車後對台灣土地使用影響之實證研究。根據實證，高鐵站之有無以及高鐵站所在區位對鄉鎮市區土地使用有顯著影響，且相較其他控制變數，為影響鄉鎮市區土地使用之重要變數。有高鐵站之鄉鎮市區與無高鐵站之鄉鎮市區相比，土地使用可能成長較多，而位於高鐵一定服務範圍內之鄉鎮市區之土地使用，亦受高鐵所影響。另外，不同區位之高鐵站對土地使用之效果有所不同，而該區位效果隨產業特性可能有所差異。人口、及業人口以及三級產業及業人口可能因市中心區位之高鐵站聚集，但二級產業及業人口未有因市中心區位高鐵站而聚集的現象；郊區區位之高鐵站鄉鎮市區或縣市，則有人口、及業人口或三級產業及業人口流失的現象。由上述結果可驗證，高鐵服務範圍內有聚集效果之發生，而不同區位之高鐵站，聚集之效果並不同。

For many years, the interactive relationship between transportation and land use has been widely discussed by scholars. This study is trying to assess the short-term impact of high-speed rail (HSR) on land use. There are two types of studies on the impact of high-speed rail on land use. One is establishing models to predict future land use development; the other is evaluating the effect of HSR empirically. Past studies have shown that possible impacts on land use after the operation of HSR include: no significant land use change, inter-regional interaction change, cluster effect, disparities, and "tunnel effect" or "corridor effect."\n\n In this empirical study, the results of hierarchical linear model show that the existence of the HSR station and the location of the HSR station have a significant effect on the land use in the city. Controlling for other control variables, the existence and location of the HSR station are important factors influencing the land use in the city. Land use development in cities with the HSR station may be more evident than those without the HSR station. Cities within the HSR service area are also effected by HSR. In addition, there may be different land use effects due to different locations of the HSR stations, and these location effects may be different due to different industrial characteristics of the area. Population, employment, and employment of tertiary industrial sectors in a city may cluster due to the HSR station in central area location, but employment of secondary industrial sectors doesn’t. Otherwise, population, employment, and employment of tertiary industrial sectors in a city or county may lose due to the HSR station in rural area location. In conclusion, there is a cluster effect within the HSR service area, and this effect varies according to the location of the HSR station.