中國新生代農民工支出之型態與影響因素

Abstract

農民工是中國改革開放過程中因為城鎮化、工業化所產生的流動人口群體，由於政府當局對於戶口遷移的嚴格控制，使中國農民工在農村與城市工作崗位間候鳥式往返，出現異於其他國家人口遷移的群體特徵。而新生代農民工研究則是傳統農民工研究在新階段的延續和發展，過去文獻指出，新生代農民工對農村的歸屬感不如傳統農民工強烈，且追求在城市中長期穩定的生活。\n本論文探討新生代農民工及其參照群體——「傳統農民工」與「新生代城鎮居民」——的消費行為有何差異，並使用ELES擴展線性支出系統模型來估計新生代農民工及其參照群體的邊際消費傾向。研究結果顯示，與新生代城鎮居民相比，新生代農民工住房支出較高、成人教育培訓支出較低，可能使他們在未來的職涯發展面臨更大挑戰。而邊際消費傾向分析結果指出，新生代農民工和新生代城鎮居民的邊際消費傾向明顯高於傳統世代的居民，尤其是在購房租房方面支出的邊際消費傾向較高，凸顯出目前新生代居民普遍面臨的家庭支出壓力。在支出影響因素的分析部分，研究結果指出家庭人數愈多的家庭明顯有更多的子女教育支出；房屋產權擁有者的性別對於家庭消費支出也有很大的影響，男性產權擁有者的家庭會花費較多於購、建、租房支出，而女性產權擁有者的家庭則會提高子女教育支出；另外參與社會保險則有助於平滑家庭中的消費支出項目，顯著增加耐用消費品、文化休閒娛樂支出、非個人自付醫療支出、購買生產資料支出等支出之可能性。

Migrant workers in China is a group of floating population generated by the urbanization and industrialization from the reform and opening-up policy. Unlike migration in other countries, migrant workers in China migrate back and forth between rural hometowns and workplaces in cities because of the strict Hukou restrictions. Research in new-generation migrant workers is a new progression of traditional migrant worker studies. Existing literature has indicated that the new-generation migrant workers do not have much sense of belonging like traditional migrant workers, but they pursue a long-term and stable city life instead.\nThis thesis attempts to identify the differences of consumption behavior between new-generation migrant workers and their reference groups, the traditional migrant workers and the new-generation urban residents. The Extended Linear Expenditure System (ELES) model is also applied to compute the marginal propensity to consume (MPC). Results show that new-generation migrant workers spend more on housing but less on vocational training than new-generation urban residents, and the lower expense on vocational training may bring more challenges to new-generation migrant workers for their careers in the future. The ELES results show that the new-generation migrant workers and urban residents have much higher MPC than the traditional generation, especially in housing, which highlights the heavy burden faced by the new generation. The findings of the determinants of expenditures show that bigger families spend more on children’s education. Male property ownership is associated with higher spending on housing, and female property ownership with higher children’s education. Social security program participation also helps achieve consumption smoothing in a family and increases the possibility of consuming durable goods, leisure and entertainment expense, non-personal medical deductibles and means of production expenses.