中國大陸海權戰略中的東協經貿外交研究

Abstract

世界貿易組織成立之後，各國經濟發展隨著交通工具與網際網路的進步，「全球化」與「區域化」成為推動全球經濟發展的動力，區域合作對國際關係的重整產生深遠的影響，同時民族國家更希望透過區域性的整合來增加經濟效率與政治接受度。已成為全球第二大經濟體的中國大陸，其領導人習近平於2013年分別提出了「絲綢之路經濟帶」與「二十一世紀海上絲綢之路」的戰略構想，做為其以經濟優勢為基礎，對周邊國家實施區域整合的策略，並成為區域性霸權的雙面刃。\r\n基於地緣政治的因素，為了有效的施行中國大陸以發展成海洋強國為主軸的「二十一世紀海上絲綢之路」戰略構想，東南亞國協成為中國大陸企業走出去的首選目標。強調以東南亞國協為中心的「區域全面經濟夥伴協定」為中國大陸所積極推動的區域經濟整合，普遍被認為是中國大陸為了主導全球經濟，制衡美國所支持的「跨太平洋夥伴關係協定」之戰略手段，東協亦成為中美權力較量的重點區域。除了與區域外強權的經貿競逐，東南亞國協十國於政治、經濟、文化、宗教、地理與自然資源因素都存在很大的差異，中國大陸推行經貿整合的過程雖創造了合作的機遇，卻也存在諸多風險。\r\n2010年中國大陸與東協自貿區成立以來，雙邊的服務貿易與貨物貿易協議成效均不斷擴大，中國大陸藉由「二十一世紀海上絲綢之路」和中國大陸與東協自貿區「升級版」作為中國大陸與東協當前經濟合作的支撐，並以投資為合作主軸，互聯互通為核心，輔以亞洲基礎建設投資銀行及絲路基金等銀彈策略，同時為中國大陸經濟高速成長產能過剩問題尋求出路，本文透過中國大陸海權戰略、區域經濟整合與東協經貿外交進程，分析其機遇、挑戰及影響。

After the World Trade Organization(WTO) was formed, the progress of both the transportation and network have been pushing the development of countries’ economy. “Globalization” and “Regionalization” become the power for promoting global economy development. Regional cooperation has deep influence on the reformation of international relations. Meanwhile, nation-states would like to increase economic efficiency and political acceptance through regional integration. In 2013, China, being the world’s second largest economy, its leader, Xi Jinping, raised up strategic concept of “Silk Road Economy Belt” and “21st Century Maritime Silk Road” for its foundation of economic advantages.China is using it as a tactic to perform regional integration of the neighboring countries and to become a regional superpower.\r\nBased on the geo-political reason, in order to effectively enforce the strategic concept of “Twenty-first Century Maritime Silk Road” and to develop China as a maritime power, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has become the top choice for Chinese corporations to walk out. The “Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP)” centered on the ASEAN nations, which China is actively pushing for, is widely believed to be a strategic move to lead the global economy and to balance “Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement” supported by the United States. The ASEAN has become the competing focal point for both China and the U.S. Besides the economic competition with the outside regional superpowers, all the 10 members of the ASEAN countries exist significant differences in politics, economy, culture, religion, geography, and natural resources. Therefore, despite China is creating the opportunity of economic and trading cooperation, there are still many risks.\r\nSince the establishment of China and ASEAN Free Trade Area(CAFTA) in 2010, the result of service trade and goods trade agreement has expanded. China uses both “21st Century Maritime Silk Road” and the upgraded version of “China-ASEAN Free Trade Area” to support its economic cooperation with the ASEAN, meanwhile, using investment as the principle for cooperation, and mutual communication as the core, and money bullet from Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and Silk road fund as the assisting strategy in order to seek way out for China’s overcapacity. This paper is for readers to understand China’s opportunity, threat, and effect through analyzing its maritime strategy, and regional economic integration with ASEAN economy diplomacy and trade progress.