選區分配與族群投票：從馬來西亞2013年國會大選評析馬國政黨輪替的瓶頸

Abstract

在2013年5月馬來西亞所舉行的第13屆全國大選中，執政的「國陣」政府僅得到46.7%的選民支持，創下執政聯盟自1959年以來的最難堪紀錄，但卻在國會222席中取得133席（占總席次59.9%），而得以繼續執政。族群認同、族群政黨、族群的選舉競爭與菁英共治，向來是馬來西亞政治的最大特徵，甚至其為人所詬病的選區分配制度沿革與數次選區疆界重劃，也有濃厚的族群考量。本文主要依據馬來西亞《星洲日報》在2013年第13屆國會大選過後所提 供之222個國會選區的選舉人數、各族群所占比例、以及選舉結果等原始資料，逐一登錄與整理，藉此觀察馬國此屆大選所顯現的制度與族群因素，並初步評析馬國反對陣營欲進一步挑戰「國陣」威權、並以政黨輪替作為引領該國進一步政治民主化契機所面臨的瓶頸。

Malaysia’s thirteenth general elections, held on 5 May 2013, made a stunning blow to the incumbent Barisan Nasional (BN) regime. Although BN won 59.9% of the parliament seats and continued to rule the government, it gained only 46.7% of popular votes -- the worst record in the country’s political history. This article uses electoral and demographic data to test two important factors for these outcomes: electoral system and ethnic politics. Evidence shows that the malapportionment and the trend of ethnic voting during elections have always been, and will continue to be, the main obstacles for the opposition camp to overthrow the BN government and to move Malaysia toward a real democratic transition.