變遷中的東北亞新經濟秩序：陸韓軸心vs.美日TPP

Abstract

中國大陸與南韓已於今年6月初正式簽署自由貿易協定（Free Trade Agreement，簡稱FTA），預定今年年底前實施。另一方面，美國與日本為主的跨太平洋經濟合作伙伴協定（Trans-Pacific Partnership，縮寫TPP）亦因美國國會通過貿易促進授權法案（Trade Promotion.Authority, TPA），賦予歐巴馬總統貿易談判授權而使TPP談判在今年10 月初達成協議。此二項協定對東北亞甚至亞洲經濟整合皆具有結構性與制度性體系因素的作用。在此背景下，東北亞經濟新秩序已儼然出現陸韓FTA 為軸心與美日主導的TPP 兩大勢力對峙的局面。尤其是南韓力圖趁日本與中共政治對抗波及經貿的此刻與中國大陸共同構建東北亞經濟整合新軸心，取代先前由日本與大陸主導東北亞經濟與台（與日聯手入大陸）韓逐鹿大陸市場的狀況。本文主旨即在就陸、日、韓、美雙邊經貿互動新常態、韓、日兩國因應中國大陸的亞洲基礎設施投資銀行（Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank,簡稱AIIB 或亞投行）與「一帶一路」的策略三個角度來做深入剖析，繼而討論對台灣以及台海兩岸經貿關係的影響，並提出建言。Traditionally the economic order of Northeast Asia was dominated by the Sino-Japanese axis marked with a competition of South Korea versus Taiwan-Japan alliance in China market. However, with the conclusion of Sino- South Korea FTA last year and the conclusion of Trans- Pacific Partnership (TPP) led by the United States and Japan this year, the two FTA paradigms are now engaging in a tug of war between Beijing and Washington in Northeast Asia. In addition to Sino-US strategic tit-for-tat, another important driving force behind the changing economic order in Northeast Asia is that Japan`s economic interactions with both Mainland China and South Korea have declined in a significant way due to their political rifts over history and territorial disputes, while its economic ties with the US have greatly enhanced owing to their common strategy to counter China`s rise. Against this background, this paper is to explore reasons behind the changing economic order in Northeast Asia, then a comparative study of South Korea and Japan`s response to China`s grand strategy for the 21^(st) century characterized by the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) proposal and ＂One Road and One Belt＂ strategy and finally the formation of Taiwan`s coping strategy from the private sector led by Foxconn.