台灣高教擴張對年輕世代職業地位及薪資的影響：反事實的分析

Abstract

本研究計畫以反事實分析的角度及方法，探討台灣高教擴張前後，大學學歷對於年輕世代之初職及現職職業聲望與工作收入的影響。本計畫將高教擴張前後的兩個世代，分成三類群體：「必為者」（不管是否高教擴張都會上大學者）、「順勢而為者」（沒有高教擴張的話，無法上大學，但高教擴張後因機會增加而上大學者），以及「必不為者」（不管高教是否擴張，都不會上大學者）。本計畫使用華人家庭動態資料庫第5年計畫（RI2003）與第11年計畫（RI2009）蒐集到的兩世代樣本為研究對象。分析策略有二：一為模擬方法，另一則為配對方法。以此二方法區別高教擴張前後年輕世代的三類人後，再以差異中之差異法來估計高教擴張對年輕世代這三類人之職業地位聲望及薪資的影響。研究結果發現，兩種分析策略得到的結果相近。主要研究發現為：1、雖然必為者比其他兩類人在不論是在初職或現職的職業聲望及薪資上都有優勢，但高教擴張會減少其初職之優勢；2、高教擴張對順勢而為者的初職及現職之聲望及薪資都有正面影響力。

This project proposes a counterfactual analysis to estimate the causal effects of college expansion on earnings and occupational prestige of young people in Taiwan. The rapid expansion of higher education in Taiwan in mid-1990s is attributed by the public to be the main cause of stagnant wage growth and high unemployment rates of college graduates in recent years. A crucial question that needs to be answered is whether close to universal access to higher education in Taiwan would be beneficial to those can now attend college thanks to the expansion in the same way as those obtained college degrees before the expansion. Using both simulation strategy and matching method to examine a unique dataset collected by Panel Study of Family Dynamics\nin Taiwan, this project is able to identify a pre-expansion cohort and a post-expansion cohort and then estimated the change in earnings and occupational prestige due to expansion for three groups: “compliers” (who would not have attended before the expansion but would do so after the expansion), “always-takers” (who would be predicted to go to college before and after expansion), and “nevertakers”(who would not go to college in either period). The findings show that while always takers have advantages in both earnings and occupational prestige, college expansion decreases their advantages at least for the gains in the first job. Compliers, on the other hand, are clearly gained from expansion by earning more and having higher prestige in either their first or current jobs.