台灣選民政黨認同的持續與變遷

Abstract

本文利用跨時性的資料檢視台灣地區選民政黨認同的持續與變遷，以及分析影響不同政治世代選民政黨認同的因素。檢視1992、1995以及1998年的調查研究資料顯示：台灣地區三個政治世代的選民，對國民黨認同的分布，是相當穩定的。而年長的世代，其穩定的程度，又較年輕世代的選民爲高。就民進黨的認同者而言，三次訪問中，民進黨的認同者持續成長，不過，年長者認同民進黨的比例較少。\r\n當考慮了省籍因素後，我們發現：就本省閩南籍的選民而言，他們對國民黨的認同比例非常穩定，而他們對民進黨的認同則持續增加。新的政黨對本省第一代的選民，較不具吸引力的。本省第二代對新黨的支持程度相當低，不過，對民進黨的支持程度在1998年卻超過了國民黨。本省第三代選民則在1995年給予新黨相當的支持。就所有外省選民而言，他們在1992年認同國民黨的比例超過八成，到了1995年則減少了一半，1998年則回升至六成多。外省選民對民進黨歷年的平均支持，不到5個百分點。而他們對新黨支持度在1995年與1998年之間也有顯著的變動。就各政治世代跨時比較而言，我們發現：對第一代選民而言，影響他們對國民黨的認同的重要因素是「中國人」的自我認定。而偏向獨立的統獨立場，影響第一代選民對民進黨認同的傾向較顯著。就第二代選民而言，他們傾向利用統獨立場來決定他們對國、民兩黨的認同。至於第三代選民，則傾向的獨立的立場以及「台灣人」自我認同，是影響他們對民進黨認同的重要因素。

I demonstrated change and continuity of party identification among the electorate in Taiwan by examining longitudinal survey data, and exploring factors affected people`s party identification among different political generations. It was shown that voters among three generations had stable partisan affiliation toward the KMT in 1992, 1995, and 1998.Voters among elder generations had more stable party identification than voters among younger generation. As to the DPP supporters, the proportions increased continuously between 1992 and 1998, but the proportion of the DPP supporters was the lowest among voters of elder generation. \r\nWhen people`s ethnic backgrounds were considered, I find that the distribution of the KMT identifiers was very stable among Taiwanese(Min-nan-jun),and the proportion of the DPP supporters among Taiwanese increased continuously. However, two new parties, i. e., the DPP and the NP, were less likely to attract first-generation Taiwanese. Few second-generation Taiwanese preferred the NP, but they were more likely to support the DPP than the KMT in 1998. Among Taiwanese, third-generation voters were more likely to support the NP. As to mainlanders, there were more than 80% of them identified themselves as the KMT partisans, the proportion decreased to 40% in 1995 but it rebounded to 60% in 1998.The proportion of the DPP partisans among mainlanders was less than 5% between 1992 and 1998.The proportion of the NP identifiers fluctuated dramatically among mainlanders between 1995 and1998.\r\nAs to voters among three political generations, I demonstrated that Chinese identity was an important factor to determine first-generation voters` KMT identification. First-generation voters decided their DPP identification by their Taiwan-independence stance. As to voters among second generation, their stances on the issue of unification with mainland China versus Taiwan independence tended to determine whether they identified themselves as KMT or as DPP partisans. As voters among third generation, they were more likely to employ their Taiwan-independence stance and Taiwanese identity to decide whether they want to support the DPP.