中國崛起背景下的中澳經濟前瞻

Abstract

中國崛起是21世紀最重要的國際事務之一。在經濟上，澳洲是世界上最極為倚重中國的國家。雖然中國崛起對澳洲尤其重要，但目前仍沒有足夠的研究涉及這個議題。有鑒於此，本篇論文應用跨學科---經濟與非經濟---的方法評估中澳經濟之前瞻。本研究認為，從經濟角度看，未來中澳的關係有利。然而目前澳洲政府管理中國崛起的策略不善，可能是雙邊貿易面臨的主要威脅，以致損害未來的經濟環境，以及澳洲對中國的觀感。本論文之結論顯示亞太必須積極地管理中國崛起的重要性，並提出政策建議供給澳洲及其他國家參考

The rise of China is one of the most monumental events in the 21st Century and important to all states in the Asia-Pacific. The rise of China is specifically pertinent to Australia’s future as Australia is the world’s most economically dependent economy on China. This thesis evaluates the future of Australia-China trade from an interdisciplinary perspective considering both economic and non-economic approaches. The thesis looks at the future of Australia-China trade in an economic sense by analyzing descriptive trade statistics. This is the first analysis of Australia-China trade of this type and the first application of the Herfindahl-Hirschman index. The thesis finds that the future of Australia-China trade is very good and the rise of China poses significant opportunities for both states. The thesis goes on to consider how the process of the rise of China has been managed in Australia by the government of Australia. The thesis argues that the main threat to trade is the government of Australia’s poor management of the rise of China, which is showing signs of damaging the conditions of economic exchange and creating a negative perception of China in Australia. The implications of the analysis and the need for states to be proactive in their management of the rise of China is especially pertinent for many states in the Asia-Pacific. The thesis concludes by providing a range of recommendations for Australia and China to help improve the management of the rise of China to enable a more beneficial world.