「城鄉差距」與「地方派系影響力」之研究----1998年台北縣縣議員與鄉鎮市長選舉的個案分析

Abstract

賄選風氣猖獗是我國選舉政治的一大弊端，早已成為社會各界廣泛批判的議題。本文以民國八十四年至八十七年期間，三級法院對於雲嘉南地區賄選案件的判決結果為分析對象，運用「層狀勝算對數模型」(hierarchical logit model)檢證法院的賄選審理是否受到政治因素的影響，而其影響程度有何差異。實證資料顯示，國民黨效應、候選人當選與否、選舉類型，以及賄選訴訟三級三審程序等變數，與法院判决之間並不必然存有因果關係。易言之，民間普遍認定的賄選訴訟印象，譬如「法院也是執政黨的」、「當選過關，落選被關」、「一審重判，二審減半，三審不算」等，這些觀點與實際情形有所出入。在結論中，本文認為司法政治應是學界值得嘗試的研究領域，另外亦提出本研究的限制與尚待改進之處。

Vote-buying has long marred Taiwan`s elections and this mal-practice has been condemned by all sections of our society.Yetthe general public does not seem to trust the judicial system in Taiwanto be independent of political influences.A number of popularsayings reflect this negative impression of vote-buying cases inthe court.For example,it is widely quoted that\"the judiciary isdominated by the ruling Kuomintang,\"that\"those elected will belet off,but those lost will be imprisoned,\"and that\"at the first triala heavy sentence is laid down,at the second trial the sentence ishalved,and in the third trial the case is quashed.\"This paper examines the three-level court`s decisions on vote-buying litigation in Southwest Taiwan between 1995 and 1998.Ahierarchical logit model is constructed to test whether judgementson vote-buying cases are affected by political factors and,if theyare,to what extent.To our amazement,we find that there is nosignificant relationship between the court`s decisions and the partyaffiliation of the litigants involved,whether the candidates areelected or not,the type of elections,or the judicial procedure ofvote-buying cases.In other words,those popular sayings citedabove are inconsistent with our findings.Undoubtedly,judicialpolitics in Taiwan deserves further academic research.