中共中央政治局委員菁英甄補研究：「十六大」至「十八大」實證分析

Abstract

有關中共高層政治菁英甄補的文獻研究，雖然提供研究者相當具啟發性之思維，然而這類的研究在量化分析上仍有其局限性。主要原因在於單一面向的解讀，難以掌握中共菁英政治的本質與全貌。此外，制度化因素的局限與人治色彩不確定性亦難以捉摸。因此，針對中共派系與權力的運作，建構更科學研判機制與客觀評量標準，有其必要性。此舉亦有助於解讀中共政治繼承與菁英甄補之運作和變遷趨勢。本研究系統性地蒐集中共「十六大」至「十八大」之中央委員與候補中央委員的背景與特徵，運用統計方法探討這些變因如何影響中共的幹部菁英入選中央政治局委員。實證分析顯示，派系政治運作是決定中央政治局委員人選的重要因素，中央委員與候補中央委員的幹部級別、地方歷練次數與教育程度的重要性居次。

Studies on recruitment of high-ranking elites in the Chinese Communist Party（CCP）, despite their inspiration to researchers, are limited for quantitative analysis. The main reason stems from difficulties in comprehending the nature and complete picture of CCP elite politics. Furthermore, limitations of institutional factors and uncertainties of rule by man are also hard to capture. Therefore, there is a need to construct a more scientific mechanism of determination and an objective standard of assessment towards factions and operations within the CCP. This also promotes understanding of the operations and changes of political succession and elite recruitment. This study systematically collects backgrounds and characteristics of the Central Committee Members and Alternative Central Committee Members from the 16^(th) to 18^(th) CCP Party Congresses, and uses statistical methods to explore how these factors influence selection of elites as Politburo Members. Empirical analyses show that the operation of faction politics is one of the most important factors that determine the selection of Politburo Members while cadre rank, local experience, and education are secondary.