台灣認同與總統大選結果的關係

Abstract

此研究旨在分析不斷上漲的台灣意識如何影響台灣的總統大選。台灣意識受五零年代以來海內外台灣獨立運動啟發，八零年代後期的民主化使愈來愈多的民眾認為自己是台灣人，其中年輕世代的台灣認同比例為最高。成為主流的台灣意識不只助長台獨意識，更促使政黨調整其兩岸政策。若將國家認同作為台人統獨態度的影響因素，認同議題便是國家層級的政治議題，此議題會進一步影響政黨的發展與決策。作為一民主國家，民意總展現在每次的選舉中，過去二十年來台灣意識對投票結果具有一定的影響力。然而2008年及2012年的總統選舉中，台灣意識的影響力漸弱，甚至不被作為主要選舉策略，此乃因台灣意識已高度內化，而為求選票最大化，政黨在此議題上須採相同立場。2016年總統選舉投票日前發生的「周子瑜」事件鼓舞年輕世代在感覺到主權受威脅後自發性地參與投票，並將選票投給台灣意識較高的民主進步黨，證明台灣意識依舊是影響選民投票的因素。

The purpose of this thesis is to analyze the impacts on the Presidential elections brought up by the growing Taiwan identity. The trend was inspired by Taiwan independence movements at home and abroad since the 1950’s. After the democratization in the late 1980’s, more and more citizens have identified themselves as Taiwanese, the trend has not only fueled the pro-independence movements, but also encouraged the political parties to adjust their cross-strait policies. If we see national identity as a variable in building unification/independence attitude, the identity issue will be a political topic at the state level which further affects development and policies of political parties. As a democracy, public opinion has been reflected in every Presidential election, and the national identity issue played an important role in the past Presidential elections. However, in 2008 and 2012, Taiwan identity was not a major strategy since it was already highly internalized and parties had to stand on the same position regarding this issue to maximize the votes. The Chou, Tzu-yu incident encouraged young people to vote when the sovereignty crisis was raised, and they voted the Democratic Progressive Party, the party with stronger Taiwan identity. The voting preference showed that Taiwan identity was still a factor influencing the Presidential elections.