Australia`s Economic Relations with China and Taiwan in the 2000s

Abstract

冷戰後時代與冷戰時代亞太國際關係的兩個最大不同點就是經貿事務的重要性與日俱增與中國的崛起。前者使澳洲與台灣皆面臨如何在安全利益與經貿利益間尋求平衡，後者亦使兩國思考如何因應中國的崛起。儘管台澳兩國皆處於同樣的國際情境，但是二者卻做出截然不同的抉擇。澳洲與大多數亞太國家一樣採取與中國交往的政策，另一方面台灣官方基於安全考量對中國大陸存在著相當的敵意，而台商則盼望強化與對岸的經貿互動。本文主旨在探討澳洲與台海兩岸的經貿互動。澳中經貿互動的規模大於澳台經貿互動。在商品貿易上，2003年澳中雙邊貿易總額（233億澳元）是澳台雙邊貿易總額（70.5億澳元）的3.3倍。澳洲對中國貿易有51億澳元的逆差，而對台灣則有3.9億澳元的順差。過去四年澳中雙邊貿易激增一倍，由於中國已連續與澳洲簽訂兩項大幅採購液化天然氣，且目前兩國正在研究簽訂FTA的可能性，預料兩國貿易仍將會持續攀升。而相對澳台雙邊貿易在同一時期先後受到亞洲金融危機、全球經濟不景氣、台灣經濟衰退以及製造業西移大陸的衝擊，呈現下滑（除2000年外）趨勢。不過，只要台灣經濟復甦，澳台貿易將可重現活絡。況且，台灣已於2002年加入WTO，市場正進一步開放中，將會有利澳洲對台的出口。再就投資來看，迄2002年底，澳洲對中國投資累計總額(28億美元）是澳洲對台灣投資累計總額（9.1億美元）的三倍多。同期，中國在澳洲投資累計總額（15.7億美元）約為台灣在澳洲投資累計總額（1.21億美元）的15倍左右。至2004年7月底止，澳洲對台灣投資累計總額（9.34億美元）約為台灣在澳洲投資累計總額（1.26億美元）的九倍左右。至2003年6月底止，中國在澳洲投資累計總額（22億澳元）則比澳洲對中國投資累計總額（12億澳元）多出近一倍。以上分析顯示中國對澳洲的重要性在過去幾年大幅提昇，而相對地台灣對對澳洲的重要性則呈現衰退的現象。因而導致台灣在此一三角關係中正處於相當不利的地位。晚近澳洲外長唐納(Alexander Downer)在北京的發言就是項值得吾人注意的發展。他稱台灣尋求獨立是項嚴重錯誤，並表示澳紐美防禦條約(ANZUS)並未規定澳洲一定要支持美國對台海用兵。這意味著澳洲對台海兩岸的立場可能會因其國家利益越來越依賴中國成長與中國龐大市場而改變。另一方面，台海兩岸經貿互動頻繁實際上提供澳商與台商聯手赴中國大陸投資的良好契機。

During the Cold War period, ideological and strategic considerations dictated nations` foreign policies as well as international relations. Asia Pacific was without exception. However, with the advent of the post-Cold War era, quite different from those in the Cold War period, at least two major characteristics of the international environment in Asia Pacific can be identified. The first one is the growing importance of economic affairs in international relations. In the Cold War period, national interest of most countries was monolith. To be more specific, economic interest was largely subordinated to security interest as a tool to achieve strategic and political goals. However, this is no longer the case in international relations in the post-Cold war era. For decision makers in Asia Pacific nowadays, the importance of economic affairs matters no less than security. Economic cooperation is always on the top agenda of summits. The most recent example is that Chinese Premier Jiabao Wen`s visit to Russia. The visit was depicted in the media as energy trip. By the same token, economic cooperation topped agenda of South Korean President Moo-hyun Roh`s trip to Russia in September, to India and Vietnam in October this year. The Russian trip was aimed at accelerating their economic cooperation in bilateral investment, energy, (linkage of) railways, space technology and information technology. In addition, it has become not uncommon that a country`s economic interest conflicts with its security interest. This phenomenon exists not only between the two sides of Taiwan Straits, but also between Australia and China. China is both Taiwan`s number one export market and the greatest security threat. Alternatively, for Australia, the worst scenario in the post-Cold War era is the confrontation between Washington and Beijing. This could put Australia in a dilemma torn between its security interest with the U.S. and economic interest with China. Derek McDougall points out \"If war were to break out over the Taiwan issue, and the US came to the assistance of Taiwan, there would then be pressure on Australia to provide some support to the US. This would be a very divisive issue in Australia but, in this extreme circumstance, priority would most likely be given to the US alliance over the relationship with China.\" Another major characteristic of international environment in Asia Pacific since the end of the Cold War is the emergence of China.3 Despite of China`s low per capita GDP (US$1,087 in 2003), according to WTO, PRC`s total trade volume increased from US$325 billion in 1997 to US$500 billion in 2001. Its ranking in global trade thus has shot up from the thirty-second in 1979 to the fourth last year (2003). As a result, China has emerged as the third I argest imports nation in the world, only next to the U.S. and Germany.5 Last year, China`s imports volume from Asia totaled US$272.9 billion, an increase of 42.4% from 2002. In particular, the growth rate of imports from the ASEAN, Japan, South Korea and India all recorded over 35%. 6 This has further deepened those countries` dependence on China`s market. Furthermore, according to a report by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), China, attracting US$53 billion of foreign direct investment (FDI), overtook the United States in 2003 as the world`s biggest recipient of foreign direct investment. FDI to China continued to keep a stable growth rate of 11.99 per cent in the first half of this year (2004), with an actual FDI amounting to US$33.9 billion.7 Alternatively, in terms of amount of money used for merger and acquisition (M&A) in Asia Pacific, China emerged as the country that merged and acquired most companies of other countries in the area in the first half of this year.