她們改投給蔡英文嗎？2008-2012年總統大選性別差距的變動

Abstract

2008年台灣總統大選首次出現顯著的性別差異，2012年總統大選出現第一位女性總統候選人。為比較兩次總統大選的轉變，本研究採用「台灣選舉與民主化調查」（簡稱TEDS）定群追蹤樣本（panel data, 2008P-2012），來觀察同樣的選民在兩次總統大選中，其投票抉擇的穩定與改變，以及性別差距的變化與原因。定群追蹤資料的分析顯示，女性選民較男性選民在投票上更傾向由藍轉綠，女性選票的轉移使得2008年總統大選中的性別差距在2012年縮小了。在影響投票流動的因素上，我們比較了政黨認同、候選人的評價、以及議題的影響，此三者雖對於投票流動具有不同程度的影響，但在解釋投票流動的性別差異上，只有候選人評價的變動對於投票的轉移有顯著的性別差異。在這些因素中，投票流動出現性別差異主要是在政黨認同穩定的選民。投票由藍轉投綠的女性，一部分來自於穩定的泛綠支持者，在2008年跨黨投給馬英九，但在2012年時回流投給了民進黨的候選人蔡英文；另一部分則來自於穩定的泛藍支持者，因為對蔡英文較正面的評價，而跨黨投給了民進黨的候選人。比較兩次選舉的投票行為，可以發現政黨認同對兩性投票的影響有所不同，男性的政黨認同對於投票行為具有決定性影響；女性的政黨認同和投票行為的關係較會受到其他因素的影響，特別是對女性選民具有吸引力的候選人（女性總統候選人蔡英文）出現時，女性更可能轉移其投票對象。

In 2008 presidential election, Taiwan for the first time appeared a significant gender gap in voting; in 2012 presidential election, the first female presidential candidate arose to challenge the incumbent. To compare the changes between these two elections, this study uses ”Taiwan`s Election and Democratization Study (TEDS)” panel data (2008P-2012) to observe the stability/change and the patterns of gender gap among the same set of voters. The analysis shows that women voters are more likely than men to change their votes from the KMT candidate to the DPP candidate. The transferring pattern of women voters accounts for the shrink of the voting gender gap comparing to the last election. In terms of the explanation for the voting change, we compare three factors, the party identification, candidate evaluation and issue effect. All of these three factors affect voting decisions to different extent, but in explaining gender difference of the voting change, only the candidate factor is significant. Voting change is mainly due to the female voters with stable party identification, transferring their votes from the KMT to DPP candidate. Among those female voters, some of them are stable DPP supporters who voted for Ma in the 2008 election and returned to vote for DPP candidate Tsai, and still some are stable KMT supporters who cross their party line to vote for their preferred DPP candidate Tsai. Comparing these two presidential elections with panel data, we can conclude that men are more likely to stick to their party identification in casting their ballots, whereas women are more likely to be influenced by other factors besides party identification. And this time, the other factor is the candidate. For those female voters who give the DPP candidate higher evaluation, voting transfer is a natural result.