探討總統施政評價如何影響地方選舉─以2009年縣市長選舉為例

Abstract

國民黨在2008年立委及總統大選雖然大獲全勝，從民進黨手中取回政權，但勝選的氣勢卻沒有維持多久，很快地在隔年縣市長選舉中就以「小敗」收場。解釋2009年縣市長選舉結果的觀點不外乎下列兩者：第一、執政黨的支持者冷漠不出來投票，第二、部分原本支持國民黨的選民轉向支持民進黨。而不論是哪一種觀點，所立基的假設皆為：民眾對執政黨的施政評價影響了他們在地方選舉中的投票行為。本研究旨在探討上述假設，認為即便是地方選舉，民眾仍會回溯中央政府的施政表現，並做為其在地方選舉中是否持續支持執政黨的依據。本研究分析選舉前的民意調查資料後發現，民眾對馬英九的滿意度、民眾對中央政策是否影響其個人經濟情況、及民眾對整體經濟情況的評估等三項因素，皆會影響他們的投票意向。總之，本研究發現，「公民複決式」的投票模型適當地解釋了2009年縣市長選舉中的選民行為，即執政者的施政績效對於「期中」地方（次級）選舉中的選民投票行為具有舉足輕重的影響力。

Taiwan`s ruling party, Kuomintang (KMT), handed a loss to the opposition party, Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), in the 2009 Magistrate Elections. The conventional wisdom suggests two competing arguments to interpret the election results-while some argued that the KMT`s loss was mainly due to the lack of partisan mobilization within the KMT, some posited that it was because a significant proportion of voters changed their voting preferences from the KMT to the DPP between the 2008 national and 2009 local elections.In fact, both arguments share the same premise: there exists a linkage between the performance of the ruling party (in the central government) and its electoral prospect in local elections. Specifically, the performance of President Ma has a substantial impact on the 2009 local election. This study utilizes survey data to verify such premise. Our data analysis shows that a voter`s assessments on President Ma`s job performance as well as on general and personal economic conditions affect his/her voting intention. In other words, we found that the ”referendum voting model,” in which voters caste their votes in midterm elections on a basis of their evaluations of the ruling party, properly explains voting behavior in Taiwan`s midterm elections such as the 2009 local elections.