穩定與變動：台灣民眾的「台灣人／中國人」認同與統獨立場之分析

Abstract

本文使用台灣選舉與民主化調查計畫於2004-2008年的定群追蹤資料，探討台灣民眾的「台灣人／中國人」認同是否確實比民眾的統獨立場態度更具穩定性，並進一步討論和態度穩定／變動相關的社會人口學變項為何，最後試圖檢視兩個重要政治態度之間的影響方向。研究結果發現民眾的「台灣人／中國人」認同穩定性相對來說確實比較高，但受訪者態度一致性也僅屬於中度一致。和受訪者在此兩個議題態度變化或穩定具關聯的因素，包括個人的教育程度、政治世代，以及是否具有大陸經驗。教育程度較低、屬於第一世代和沒去過大陸者有較高的比例在態度上發生改變。進一步檢視受訪者「台灣人／中國人」認同與統獨立場的影響關係發現，在模型中，同時考量受訪者2004年的統獨立場和其「台灣人／中國人」認同，研究發現「台灣人／中國人」認同對於受訪者2008年的統獨立場仍具有重要解釋力，因此本文認為「台灣人／中國人」認同不僅較統獨立場穩定，並且影響個人的統獨立場。

This paper aims to examine the test-retest reliability of two important political attitudes, i.e. Taiwanese/Chinese identity and issue of Unification/ Independence (UI issue), among the Taiwanese electorate by analyzing the 2004-2008 panel data from the Taiwan Election and Democratization Study. This paper further explores the socio-demographic factors that might affect the consistence of one`s Taiwanese/Chinese identity and the position of the issue of Unification/Independence. This paper then examines the relationship between the two political attitudes.The findings suggest that one`s Taiwanese/Chinese identity demonstrates higher stability than his/her position on the UI issue. People who identified themselves as Chinese changed to having a ”joint identity”. Those who hold a ”joint identity” have changed to identified themselves as Taiwanese. The factors that affect one`s attitude consistency include education, political generation and China experience. Those with less education, the oldest generation and have been to China are more likely to change their attitudes. Moreover, findings from the statistical model show that one`s Taiwanese/Chinese identity influences one`s position on the UI issue.