總統得票率、地方補助款與行程安排之相關性探討

Abstract

在時間有限的前提下，正副總統如何安排地方的參訪行程是一門有趣的課題，也是分配政治研究中重要的一環。本文藉由實證研究的方式，以台灣正副總統到各鄉鎮（市）的訪視行程作爲依變項，透過Tobit迴歸分析分配政治的兩個基本模型－「游移團體」模型與「支持團體」模型。研究結果發現，由於台灣的憲政體制及政治現況，陳水扁與呂秀蓮在任職第十屆正副總統之際，基於尋求連任的目標以及在理念上追求「和解共生」、「全民政府」，因此地方參訪行程的安排呈現出「游移團體較多、支持團體與反對團體較少」的「游移團體」模型。連任後，有鑒於藍綠情結難解、政黨鴻溝無從跨越，陳水扁與呂秀蓮的行程安排改爲「支持團體」模型，轉而偏重「得票率」及「地方補助款」的因素，鎖定在屬於「支持團體」的鄉鎮（市），同時也會安排較多的行程到曾經在首任「受惠」的鄉鎮（市）。

It`s an interesting subject that the visiting schedule of the president and vice-president is based on the premise of limited time, which might indicate an important research that related to the distributive politics. With the calculation of the township trips of the highest executive leaders in Taiwan, the number would be taken as a dependent variable, so as to analyze the model of schedule arrangements and to contrast the model to two basic models, ”swing voters model” and ”support groups model”. According to the results of Tobit regression analysis, the consideration for visiting schedule of former president Chen and vice-president Lu is basically decided by the chances to seek reelection. Being the president and vice-president for the first term and ready to be the candidates for the second term, Chen and Lu arranged more local trips to townships whose political tendency are categorized as swing groups in the previous election. Successfully winning the second term of presidency, however, Chen and Lu`s visiting schedule shifts to support model; they turned to townships whose vote rates were higher than others in the reelection and townships where received more benefit during their first term.