選舉危機情境分類之探討

Abstract

本研究以2005年至2006年間，台灣地區地方首長選舉九位候選人，24個遭指控或質疑的危機案例爲研究對象，以因素分析與內容分析法，依選民對危機事件之厭惡程度與證據揭露程度兩變項，建構候選人競選危機之情境類型，並探討不同危機情境下，候選人傾向使用的反應策略。\n本研究發現，選民厭惡程度最高的危機類型是貪腐或施政問題，其次是政黨或競選策略，最不在乎的是候選人身心健康或選舉技術型危機。本研究也發現，在「厭惡程度高、證據揭露程度高」情境，候選人傾向使用「反擊對手」策略；在「厭惡程度高、證據揭露程度低」情境，候選人傾向使用「否認」策略；在「厭惡程度中、證據揭露程度高」情境，候選人傾向使用「降低危機衝擊性」策略。本研究的發現能做爲進一步建構選舉危機傳播理論的基礎。

The purpose of this study is to construct a classification of political crisis situations that candidates face and to discuss the situation-response relationship by exploring candidates` probable response strategies with respect to every type of situations of political crises during campaigns. Data is collected through 24 individual cases which present nine candidates subject to public accusations and suspicions in Taiwan`s local political elections during 2005-2006. Content analysis and factor analysis are both used to analyze the data based on two variables: electorates` degree of antipathy to the crisis events and the degree of evidence disclosure.\nIt is found that in ”high antipathy and high disclosure of evidence”, ”attack accuser” is candidates` most probable response; in ”high antipathy and low disclosure of evidence”, ”denial” is candidates` most probable choose; in ”middle antipathy and high disclosure of evidence”, candidates tend to ”reduce offensiveness of crisis”.