台灣民眾威權懷舊的初探：蔣經國政府施政的比較評價

Abstract

邇來，在民主化研究領域中，「威權懷舊」(authoritarian nostalgia)儼然成爲一項新興的研究議題。本研究以此觀點切入，探討台灣民眾對於當代政府與蔣經國政府施政的比較評價。作者擷取「2002年至2004年『選舉與民主化調查』三年期研究規劃(II)：民國九十二年民主化與政治變遷民調案」資料，利用「因素分析」(factor analysis)將施政評價區分爲「自由與民主」和「安定與均富」兩個面向，並以「迴歸模型」(regression models)進行檢證。實證結果印證本文所提出的威權懷舊研究假設：經歷民主轉型之後，民眾對於當代政府與蔣經國政府的施政評價，基於不同的政治與社會議題而呈現顯著差異。相較於蔣經國執政時期，約七成四民眾認爲當代政府在「自由與民主」方面有所進步，然而亦有近六成民眾認爲在「安定與均富」方面較爲不足。其次，教育程度較高、政治知識較爲豐富、台灣人認同者、偏向台獨立場，以及泛綠認同者傾向認爲，現今政府在「自由與民主」方面有較佳的施政表現。相對地，在「安定與均富」方面，大陸各省市人、中國人認同者、偏向統一立場，以及泛藍認同者則認爲，當前政府的施政作爲顯然亟待改善。在結論中，本文摘述實證分析要點，並提出威權懷舊的研究意涵。

In the case of some transitions from authoritarianism to democracy, it is prevalent to have the sentiment of nostalgia for the stable and orderly times of the past regime, particularly in the context of nascent democracies. This pilot study sheds some light on the issue by examining the public evaluations of government performance between the Chiang Ching-kuo administration and the present government in Taiwan. I take advantage of the ”2003 Taiwan`s Election and Democratization Study” (TEDS 2003) survey date, using the technique of factor analysis to classify government-performance evaluations into two factors, ”liberty and democracy” and ”stabilization and income equality,” and then employing regression models to test the relationship between sociopolitical variables and the two factors. The findings confirm the research hypothesis of authoritarian nostalgia that the public perceptions of the Chiang Ching-kuo administration and the present government differ in terms of the political perspective and the socioeconomic standpoint. On one hand, the general public has perceived the achievement of ”liberty and democracy” since the democratic transition, and on the other has looked back with nostalgia to the impressions of ”stabilization and income equality” during the authoritarian period. The findings also reveal that the variables of educational attainment, political knowledge, Taiwanese consciousness, Taiwan independence preference, and the pan-green identification exert positive effects on ”liberty and democracy,” while the variables of mainlander ethnicity, Chinese consciousness, China reunification preference, and the pan-blue identification account for significant variance in ”stabilization and income equality.” This study concludes that authoritarian nostalgia is still potential for future research in this field of democratization.