回溯投票或議題投票：2005年台北縣與高雄縣縣長選舉之比較分析

Abstract

在選民投票行爲的研究頜域裡，回溯投票與議題投票逐漸成爲晚近的核心課題；而台灣2005年的縣市長選舉，乃是審視回溯投票與議題投票的一個適當機會。本研究所要探討的就是：除了傳統投票行爲分析中所強調的候選人與政黨因素之外，到底回溯投票或議題投票是不是影響這次台北縣長與高雄縣長選舉結果的關鍵呢？透過經驗性的統計分析，我們獲得以下重要研究發現：一、回溯投票與議題投票非影響這次選舉的重要因素；二、政黨與候選人因素才是決定這次選舉的關鍵力量；三、這次選舉中政黨因素的影響力大於候選人因素；四、「馬英九現象」與「陳哲男涉弊」的影響力並不如預期的重要。

The subjects of retrospective voting and issue voting have recently become the major focuses in the study of voting behavior. It is quite appropriate to investigate the models of retrospective voting and issue voting for the 2005 elections in Taiwan. Except for the emphasis on the factors of candidates and political parties in the traditional analysis of voting behavior, this study tries to explore the influence of retrospective voting and issue voting on the results of the 2005 Magistrate Elections of Taipei and Kaohsiung Counties. By conducting empirical analysis, we have had some important findings as follow. First of all, both retrospective voting and issue voting are not the important factors in this given elections. Secondly, the factors of political parties and candidates are critical forces in influencing the outcome of the elections. Thirdly, the influence of the variable of political parties is powerful than the variable of candidates in the elections. Finally, the factors of ”Ma Ying-chiu phenomenon” and ”Chen Che-nan Scandal” are not as important as we expected intuitively.