台灣結、中國結與台灣心、中國情：台灣選舉中的符號政治

Abstract

本文將集體層次上「中國結與台灣結」的文化叢結概念，落實在個體層次的「中國情與台灣心」價值信念上分析，並與其他相關的政治心理變項，來說明台灣選舉中的所謂「符號政治」。以1998年與2001年兩次立委選舉的調查資料為基礎，分析結果發現：選民的「台灣心－中國情」之價值信念，可以有效地在經驗上掌握到「台灣結」與「中國結」集體潛意識的政治心理特徵；此外，選民的「中國情」與「台灣心」的心理，不僅是直接與間接影響選民黨派投票抉譯的因素，也是各種可視為構成「中國結」與「台灣結」組成因素的主軸。本文分析指出，台灣選舉的符號政治，主要是表現在「中國結」與「台灣結」衍生的對立性政治情感上；這兩種「原鄉」集體潛意識的文化叢結，在選舉競爭過程中，被轉化與極化成為對立的政治情緒。分析結果也發現，影響選民黨派投票抉擇的因素，如省籍、族群認同、政黨認同與統獨議題立場等，都輻輳交疊在「中國情與台灣心」為主軸的價值信念上。本文以因素分析來呈現這些變項的交集點，並從它們的共同因素基礎上，賦予政治上所謂的「中國結」與「台灣結」的經驗內涵。

“Taiwan vs. China” complex has been taken as the major factor that draws partisan line between parties along the “Taiwan-independence and China-unification” stance on the one hand and influences vote-choice among Taiwanese and Mainlanders on the other. Yet, this linkage has not been explored empirically as far. According to symbolic politics theory, Taiwanese vote-choices are influenced more by political affect than self-interest. The paper argues that those political affect components, as shown either in determining individual’s vote-choices or in party’s strategy of electoral mobilization, can be effectively channeled down to this “Taiwan vs. China” complex. The paper recasts this culturally deep-seated concept by looking at its derivative psycho-political orientations, so-called “Taiwan vs. China” concern, which is measured by a cluster of affective-driven beliefs in Taiwan’s supremacy and/or concerns for China.\r\nBased on an analysis of post-electoral survey data of the 1998 and 2001 legislative elections, two-factor structure is found in the “Taiwan vs. China” concerns, and this polarized affect orientation serves as a link to relate socio-demographic characteristics to ethnic identification, national identity, party identification, independence-unification stance as well as to partisan vote-choice. Symbolic politics in Taiwan’s election is thus confirmed by individual’s affect-driven vote-choices. In sum, the paper concludes that the empirical import of “Taiwan-China complex” concept can be identified as two groups of political affect components around “Taiwan vs. China” concerns in a two second-order factor analysis.