投票意向問題不同類型項目無反應之分析：以 2000 年總統大選為例

Abstract

本研究利用台灣地區社會變遷基本調查四期一次卷一資料，從認知歷程、回答動機與社會情境三個理論途徑，分析總統選舉投票意向調查訪問中，影響兩種無效回答（不記得與不願意回答）產生的可能原因。經兩階層多類別邏輯迴歸分析法實證「不記得」與「拒答」不是隨機產生的。相對於有回答投票對象，「不記得」的產生受到與認知與動機相關的受訪者年齡、教育與政治態度的影響；拒答則是源自受訪者動機與社會情境相關變項（如：受訪者政治態度、訪員性別）。本研究印證了Cannell, Miller與Oksenberg（1981）雙軌回答決定歷程。也證實項目無反應的分析中不可缺少訪員效應。本文最後從調查實務與方法研究兩方面，提供多項建議。

This paper takes the survey of 2000 president election as an example to explore the reasons behind two types of item non-response- “don’t remember” and “refusal”-from an integrative research framework based on Cognition, Motivation, and Social situation theories. Two-level multinomial model was used to analyze the data collected from Taiwan Social Change Survey. “Don’t remember”, relative to the substantive response, was found to be affected by cognition- and motivation-related variables such as respondent age, education and political attitudes, while “refusal was affected” by motivation- and situation-related variables like political attitudes and interviewer gender. The results support simultaneous two- way response process developed by Cannell, Miller and Oksenberg (1981) and reinforce the importance of interviewer effect in the analysis of item nonresponse. Suggestions, in empirical and theoretical terms, were discussed.