經濟評估與投票抉擇：以2001年立委選舉為例

Abstract

本研究主要目的在探討選民針對經濟情況的評估是否會影響到投票抉擇呢？也就是在台灣選舉中，隨著經濟環境的惡化，選民是否具備經濟投票的行爲呢？當選民認爲經濟不好時，是否會用選票來懲罰執政黨？透過以下幾方面，本文將探討經濟情況的評估與投票抉擇的關係、歸因理論、經濟投票異質性。研究發現爲在2001年的立委選舉調查資料中，選民針對個人與國家經濟情況的評估，不論是回顧或前瞻的經濟評估，皆與投票抉擇之間存有顯著的差異。然而在投票模型中，個人與國家的經濟評估並不是主要影響投票抉擇的因素。在台灣選民的投票考量上，政黨認同、統獨立場仍是主要影響選民投票決定的主要變數。因此利用歸因理論與樣本篩選，本文發現一群具有經濟投票特質的選民，而他們的投票抉擇則是受到針對國家經濟情況所做的評估影響。不過，在經濟投票異質性的檢驗上，政治信任感與選民針對國家經濟情況之評估，兩者間並不存有交互作用。換言之，經濟評估對投票抉擇的影響並不受政治信任感的影響。由以上的討論，可以得知台灣選民經濟投票行爲存有異質性，但是是何種變數影響所致，仍有待後續研究探討之。

The purpose of this article is to discuss whether the evaluation of economic condition in electorate influences the voting choice. The election in Taiwan, with the bad economic condition, do the economic voting exist? When the electorate evaluate that the economic performance is bad, will they punish the ruling party by their votes? We will discuss the relation between the evaluation of economic conditions and voting choices, attributive theory and the heterogeneity of economic voting. From the discovery of this article, there is obvious difference between personal and national evaluation of economic conditions and voting choices. In the multinomial voting model, the economic evaluation that affects the voting choices is not the main factor. Therefore, by using attributive theory and sample choosing, I find some electorate who has the economic voting character. But in the testing of the heterogeneity of economic voting, political trust and the national economic evaluation don`t exist the interaction. The effect of economic evaluation to the voting decision doesn`t be affected by political trust. We can know that there is heterogeneity in the economic voting of Taiwan electorate. However, what kind of variable causes the effect is the main continuous issue.