我國選民「分立政府」心理認知與投票穩定度：以2000年總統選舉與2001年立法委員選舉為例

Abstract

近年來，行政部門與立法部門分屬不同政黨所掌控的「分立政府」(divided government)似乎已逐漸成爲我國各級政府的常態。鑑於分立政府的理論意涵及其對於實際政治運作具有重要的參考價值，本文嘗試探索形成我國中央層級分立政府的成因。直言之，選民是否蓄意投票支持不同政黨的總統與立法委員，企圖使得行政部門與立法部門分別由不同朝野政黨掌握而相互制衡；或者，選民投票行爲是受到其他因素的影響，但卻無意間促成分立政府的出現。本文嘗試參酌相關文獻著作，綜合各家觀點，橐整研究脈絡，以作爲探討我國選民投票行爲與中央層級分立政府研究的基礎。本文分析「2001年台灣選舉與民主化調查研究：民國九十年立法委員選舉全國大型民意調查研究」資料，探討選民個人的分立政府「分權制衡」心理認知等變數，是否對其投票穩定度有所影響。研究結果顯示，選民的省籍、政黨認同、族群認同，以及分立政府制衡觀念等因素，係影響其投票穩定程度，進而形成我國中央層級分立政府的重要變數。

The phenomenon of divided government seemingly has become the institutional norm at the various levels of governments in Taiwan. In view of its theoretically and practically political implications, we focus on the causes of divided government in Taiwan’ s national politics. Put it simply, we examine the contending perspectives: the voters prefer the system of checks and balances by divided partisan control of the executive and legislative branches, and intentionally votes for presidential and congressional candidates of different political parties; or, the electoral choice may have little to do with public preferences for divided or unified government but is heavily influenced by other determinants. We take advantage of the 2001 Taiwan`s Election and Democratization Study (TEDS 2001) survey data of the general preference for divided government and examine if vote choice is on the basis of strategic considerations in the 2000 presidential and 2001 Legislative Yuan elections. The findings indicate that the variables of ethnicity, party identification, Taiwanese/Chinese identification, and the cognition for checks and balances emerge as statistically significant for accounting electoral stability/change and for the existence of divided government at the central level.