政策議題對台灣選舉行為之影響－混合型洛基分析之應用

Abstract

以政策爲依歸的理性投票行爲研究自Downs於1957年提出了著名的空間投票理論後，引起廣泛的討論。然而在台灣的選舉研究大多數集中於一些如省籍情節或李登輝情節等社會和心理變項上。本文的貢獻乃在提出一個整合的投票模型以便同時測試不同的投票理論。此外，一個可用於同時測量專屬個體型和依附選擇型自變項的不連續選擇模型—混合型洛基分析(Mixed Logit)將用於解析1996台灣總統大選選民投票行爲。實證的結果發現即使選民的政黨認同及對候選人特質的評價對選舉結果有相當程度的影響，省籍、收入和敎育程度等社會變項並不如過往研究般的重要。最重要的是政黨政策對選民的影響並非一成不變的以雙方政策之差距爲準，相對的Rabinowitz和MacDonald於1989所提的方向理論有時反而更能解釋選民的投票行爲模式。

Policy ideology does play an important role in influencing voting behavior since Downs proposed the famous spatial voting theory in 1957. The majority of the research in Taiwan however focuses much more on the sociological and psychological factors such as the ethnicity and ”Lee Tun-hui Complex”. This contribution of the study is to propose a jointed voting model to test different voting theories simultaneously. Moreover, Mixed Logit model that help to measure individual-specific and choice- specific independent variables is operated for several empirical tests on the 1996 Taiwan Presidential election. It is found that even if voter`s party identification and evaluation on candidates` competent are significant, most of the sociological factors including the ethnicity, income, and education are not noteworthy in explaining voting decision as previous studies. Most importantly, voter`s policy preference does play an important role although the policy distance between candidate and voter may not be the only way to affect the decision. It is found that the direction theory, proposed by Rabinowitz and MacDonald in 1989, is also significant.