解析台灣選民的投票參與

Abstract

1994年的省長選舉是台灣史上第一次的省長民選，也是第一個以省爲單一選區的選舉。本文嘗試探討省長選舉的投不投票決定因素，並以總統選舉資料測試模型的適用程度。資料分析發現在省長選舉中候選人的好惡比較，被拉票的次數，以及對政黨的認同程度決定選民前去投票與否。而在總統選舉中，只有對候選人的偏好比較是顯著的影響因素。這項結果顯示，候選人特質越突出，越能號召選民前去投票，而社會網路和政黨偏好強度的影響力在總統選舉中降低，意味著單一選區選舉逐漸強調候選人取向。

The gubernatorial election in 1994 was the first popularly governor election in Taiwan history. My intention here is to examine turnout in the gubernatorial and presidential elections and to explain how people decide to vote in single-member district. What my findings suggest is that social networks and candidate evaluations largely mobilize voters. Citizen duty is not as influential as partisanship in structuring people`s turnout decision. In the presidential election, however, only candidate evaluations affects turnout. The turnout decision in Taiwan hinges on self -interest and social mobilization instead of political attitudes. These findings, which of course require further investigation, shed some lights on the influence of social networks in Taiwan, and reveal the importance of candidate evaluations in terms of turnout in single-member district election.