台北縣長候選人社會福利議題 德菲技巧評估與候選人得票率關聯性分析

Abstract

本研究是以議題〔議程〕設定理論和沉默螺旋理論來驗證出台北縣選民對六位台北縣縣長候選人的投票行為。本研究亦利用德斐技巧法來預測出台北縣選民的投票傾向，從本研究的發現之中，充分顯示不但議題成為台北縣選民的投票行為主要指標，本研究亦驗證出台北縣選民不願將本身選票作無意義的浪費，關鍵選票的轉移證實沈默螺旋理論成為決定勝負的關鍵理論，值得在未來研究中作更進一步的探討。本研究亦驗證德斐技巧法是有高度正確的預測性，未來研究可更廣泛運用。

Agenda Setting theory and Silent Spring theory along with other communication theories were used in this study to predict the voting patten among six candidates of Taipei county magistrate election.Delphi techniques was also used in this study to predict the final outcome of this election.The major finding of this study indicated the voters of Taipei county using agenda of six county major candidates as the majistrate consideration toward their voting behavior.The voters also involved deeply into election campaigns to allocated their votes toward one candidate to help this candidate to win the election.Silent Spring theory was proved in this Taipei county magistrate election in this study.