影響美國總統選舉投票行為的因素：政策、政黨及候選人之相對重要性

Abstract

本文主要在研究美國總統選舉過程中，政策考量、政黨認同、及候選人特質等因素的相對重要性。在統計方法上，作者以符合即時資訊處理（on-line information processing）理論的方式來建構變項。過去的研究以開放式問卷來評估候選人影響力的方式可能會低估候選人實質的影響力。作者發現，以全體選民整體而言，候選人的人格特質在三個變項裡有最大的影響力，而且候選人特質也會透過投射及說服作用，對選民的政策考慮造成顯著的非直接影響。

This study focuses on the analysis of the relative importance of policy considerations, candidate personality assessments, and partisanship in the presidential selection process. In constructing my statistical models, I utilize developments in information processing theory to construct variables that conform to the on-line information processing assumption. Previous studies using open-ended questions to operationalize candidate assessments may underestimate their effects. I find that for the whole electorate, the personal characteristics of candidates have the most effect of the three schemata under examination, and there is a strong indirect influence of candidate assessment on policy considerations through projection and persuasion effects.