關係平衡理論與資料庫實證初探－回顧釣魚台事件之中日互動

Abstract

2012年以來，釣島紛爭為近日東亞國際關係的重要關注議題，且涉及兩岸關係，情況複雜。中日雙方當事國在軍事政治外交上逐漸進逼。值此，本文應用「關係平衡（Balance of Relationships）」理論，用以理解中日雙方環繞釣島問題的外交互動。本文並製作「關係資料庫」，並以共現詞頻為方法，表列出「關係」之客觀呈現；並設計關係指數（index of BOR），用以具體實證其關係是否共變。本研究在量化研究上發現，大國間之關係指數在本研究議題上，具有相關共變關係；而在質化研究上，發現「釣島本身」並不直接涉及巨大的領土與政經實力，而是做為反映出「關係」之場所，也更多反映出當事方對東亞周邊秩序的想像。因此，北京方面會注重「歷史、修憲、神社」等「角色認識」問題，日本多以戰後國際法社會之主權框架理解。因此，本文嘗試以新研究工具，證明關係平衡理論有相當之可檢證性。

Since 2012, the Diaoyu Island dispute has become an important issue which concerns contemporary East Asian international relations and involves cross-strait relations as well. The main two parties to the controversy have gradually advanced from diplomatic to militaristic acts. This paper tries to introduce a perspective, the ＂Balance of Relationship (BOR),＂ to understand this event and to contribute an important perspective to the dialogue on the ＂balance of power＂ theory of international relations. This paper also attempts to construct a ＂relationship＂ database, researching the subject objectively by using ＂co-word analysis,＂ and finding correlations between the great powers in an ＂index of BOR.＂ On the other (qualitative) hand, BOR attempts to create a long-term stable relationship between parties to avoid security dilemmas, and may be a solution to the current impasse in Sino-Japanese relations. While the islands are small in size with little political and economic strength on their own, they are nevertheless significant as a result of their strategic position in the region. They also reflect more imagined Asian parties in the surrounding order. Therefore, Beijing will raise problems with history, constitutional amendments, and the Yasukumi Shrines. In conclusion, this article tries to prove BOR theory using a new method.