交流生共識？赴陸臺生統獨立場之變遷

Abstract

臺海和平的關鍵，在於減少偏激的統獨立場。既有研究已發現，來臺經驗使陸生支持「儘快統一」的比率淨減少19.62%。赴陸經驗是否也會降低臺生「傾向獨立」的比率？是否使兩岸學生在統獨立場上產生共識？影響赴陸臺生統獨立場變遷的因素為何？共同影響兩岸學生統獨立場變遷的因素又為何？本文綜合社會資本、社會接觸與制度認同等理論，並採用定群追蹤法與比較法進行分析。本文發現，赴陸交流使臺生對臺獨的支持淨減少14.29%。兩岸交流使兩岸學生的統獨立場從各偏一方，進展到交集於「維持現狀，看情形再決定」。本文提出的模型可解釋赴陸交流臺生統獨立場變遷程度30.5%的變異。共同影響兩岸學生統獨立場變遷的變數乃「制度認同」與「熟人式接觸」。

The key to achieving peace in Taiwan is the reduction of bias toward the independence- reunification issue between Taiwan and China. Previous studies have shown that support for ＂quickly reunifying with China＂ among Chinese students who have studied in Taiwan has decreased by 19.6%. However, the following questions remain: (a) Do the experiences of Taiwanese exchange students while studying in China reduce their support for Taiwan`s independence? (b) Is there a consensus among Taiwanese and Chinese students regarding the independence- reunification issue? (c) What factors influence Taiwanese exchange students studying in China to change their views regarding their support for reunification? (d) What are the common factors influencing Taiwanese and Chinese students in changing their support for reunification? This study integrated the theories of social capital, social contract, and institutional identity, and conducted a panel study and comparative analysis of the collected data. The results show that cross-strait interactions reduce Taiwanese student support for independence. In addition, the distinct perspectives of Taiwanese and Chinese students regarding reunification converge following cross-strait interaction (i.e., students intend to maintain the status quo while considering future action). A regression model developed for this study explained 30.5% of the variance in the degree of change regarding the independence- reunification issue among Taiwanese students. Furthermore, ＂institutional identity＂ and ＂genuine acquaintanceship＂ were identified as common factors influencing Taiwanese and Chinese students in changing their opinion.