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Title: 管理當局信譽與自願性盈餘預測資訊內涵關係之研究
The Relationship between Management Reputation and the Informativeness of Voluntary Earnings Forecast
Authors: 李建然
Lee, Jan Zan
Chou, Jiunn Der
Keywords: 管理當局信譽;自願性盈餘預測;資訊內涵;投資人溝通政策
management reputation;voluntary earnings forecast;information content;public communication
Date: 2002-01
Issue Date: 2017-11-15 14:53:01 (UTC+8)
Abstract: 本研究旨在探討台灣上市公司管理當局的信譽,是否會影響自願性盈餘預測的資訊內涵。本文分別以前五年預測準確度之平均數及加權平均數,作為衡量管理當局信譽的代理變數,將樣本分為信譽良好及信譽不佳的管理當局,並觀察宣布自願性盈餘預測的股價反應。實證結果發現,雖然台灣在法律制度、財務分析師及專業經理人力市場方面,不易確保管理當局自願性盈餘預測的可靠性,但市場仍能依照管理當局的信譽,過濾盈餘預測的有用性。投資人不但關心管理當局所發布的盈餘預測,更關心資料來源的管理當局是否可靠。雖然自願性盈餘預測,只是與投資人溝通的方式之一,本研究所呈現的結果,對管理當局最大的啟示,應該是管理當局如果想要制定一套有效的投資人溝通政策,建立資訊可靠性的信譽是非常重要的因素。
This study investigates the relationship between managers’ reputation and the informativeness of voluntary earnings forecast released by companies listed in the Taiwan Stock Exchange. The accuracy of management forecast, calculated both by the simple average and weighted average for five years prior to the test period, is used as a proxy variable for managers’ reputation. We examine whether changes in stock prices induced by earnings forecast are associated with managers’ reputation. Our results indicate that, for companies with good reputation, there is a significant association between stock price variations and earnings forecst, whether the earnings forecast conveys good news or bad news. However, there appear no significant reaction to the earnings forecast announced by companies with bad reputation. The findings of this study suggest that the market is able to discern the quality of earnings forecasts from the reputation of managers. Therefore, to establish an effective public communication policy, managers should maitain a good record on releasing reliable information to the market.
Relation: 會計評論, 34, 77-99
Data Type: article
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Appears in Collections:[會計評論] 期刊論文

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