影響台灣上市公司自願性盈餘預測頻率之研究

Abstract

管理當局自願性盈餘預測行為的動機及其行為的模式，與一個國家或社會相關之法律環境及資訊環境息息相關。本研究透過樣本篩選(使樣本分配接近母體分配)及波爾松迴歸模式(Poisson Regression Model)分析影響自願性盈餘預測頻率的因素。實證結果顯示，當公司經營績效越好及管理當局擁有好消息時，較會揭露盈餘預測，符合訊號假說。此外，公司與債權人之間的代理問題越嚴重，管理當局越會揭露盈餘預測。同時，實證結果也一致地顯示，強制性財務預測制度的實施，的確會降低管理當局自願性盈餘預測的意願。

The legal and informational environment influences the motivation and aspect of forecasting behavior. This study examines the factors that effect the frequency of voluntary earnings forecast of public companies through sample selection (let the sample probability distribution approach to population probability distribution) and application of Poisson regression model. The empirical results show that signaling good news, operational performance, and capital structure are positively significantly correleted with frequency of forecast. The results also suggest the mandated financial forecast will preclude the management from releasing the voluntary earnings forecast.