股息變動與年盈餘宣告的資訊效果

Abstract

本文探討在一有先後次序的揭露狀況下，股息變動是否有可能強化，而非減弱或掏空其後年盈餘宣告的資訊效果。當股息變動與前一年盈餘變動有相反的符號時，對公司的前景二者給予相衝突的信號。市場上對即將宣告的年盈餘，可能會有較分歧的看法。因此，在這種股息變動之後的盈餘宣告，應有特別明顯的資訊效果。本文的實證結果支持這種情況存在。因此，股息變動有可能模糊對盈餘的預期，而盈餘宣告有釐清的功能。

In a sequential release setting, this study examines the common belief that dividend changes preempt or diminish the informativeness of subsequent earnings reports. When a dividend change gives a signal which conflicts with the change in earnings of the preceding year, the market expectations regarding the upcoming annual earnings may become more diverse. As a result, the annual earnings report following the dividend change should become more informative. The results of this study confirm this possibility. Earnings reports, therefore, are capable of clarifying the confusion in the market regarding the upcoming earnings that is caused by certain dividend changes.