動態隨機一般均衡模型於中國經濟之非傳統貨幣政策之探討

Abstract

在此研究中，我們建構一個包含金融部門的小型開放動態隨機一般均衡(DSGE)模型，並納入符合中國大陸現況的國內金融體系管制以及國際資本市場管制，以對中國大陸貨幣政策改革進行福利分析。中國大陸貨幣政策刻正進行改革，逐步解除國內金融市場以及國際資本市場的管制，此將使貨幣政策以及外在衝擊的傳導機制改變，透過 DSGE 模型進行福利分析，將有助於我們了解相關改革措施對於總體經濟以及福利水準的影響。研究結果顯示，相較於國內金融體系管制的解除，開放資本帳的影響將更為顯著。也因此，本研究建議，在貨幣政策的改革中，資本帳的開放當應更為審慎。

In this study, we establish an open-economy DSGE model with the frictional domestic credit market to conduct the welfare analyses of monetary policy reform plans of China. Currently, both the domestic credit market and international capital market are under various regulations. The progress of the gradual removal of these market regulations, which may crucially alter the transmission mechanism of domestic as well as foreign shocks, is important for the economic transformation of the Chinese economy. The welfare analyses generate important policy implications for the progress of policy reforms. The results suggest that, compared with domestic deregulations, opening capital account can be most critical as it makes the international transmission mechanism of shocks feasible.