解析「台灣人/中國人」認同及其對兩岸關係的影響

Abstract

關於「台灣人/中國人」認同的測量，1992-2012年的資料顯示：台灣民眾認為自己是「台灣人」者，呈現逐年持續上升的趨勢，目前已有一半以上的民眾持「台灣人」認同；認為自己是「中國人」者已下降至不到4%；「雙重（都是）認同」則維持在四成上下的穩定趨勢。隨著近年來台灣政治的民主化與本土化意識的抬頭，此種變遷並不令人意外。但因為台灣民眾的認同中，交織著原生性血緣文化與建構性的政治因素，民眾可能是由不同角度來解讀此一問題，使得上述「中國人」、「台灣人」或「（二者）都是」的意涵，也變得相當複雜。再者，學界也發現此一「台灣人/中國人認同」變數，在解釋民眾的政治態度及投票行為，佔有相當重要的地位，但學者們對於此一變數的測量概念，卻也有各種不同的認定。因此，本研究將以2000-2012年之間的質性資料為研究素材，解析民眾對「中國人」、「台灣人」及「（二者）都是」內容的定義、探討整體認同的變遷過程及其可能原因，並釐清此一變數的測量意涵。此外，隨著1990年代兩岸開放交流之後，台灣的經濟及政治都受到兩岸關係的衝擊與牽引，然而台灣民眾的認同卻愈來愈傾向「台灣人」，此種變遷對兩岸未來政治發展的影響，也將是本研究的重點。

The identities of Taiwan’s inhabitants have undergone substantial changes during the past decade. Recently collected survey data have shown that more than half of the island residents have now possessed a Taiwanese identity, whereas less than 4% of them claim a Chinese identity. A steady number of citizens continue to hold a Dual identity, i.e., seeing themselves as both Chinese and Taiwanese. Because Taiwan citizens’ identities have been shaped by both primordialist ties and constructionist efforts, the implication of changing identities on the island is a matter of academic debate. As identity is an important variable explaining the island citizens’ political attitudes and behaviors, its measurement also invites controversy. By employing qualitative data collected through focus group and in-depth interviews during the period of 2000-2012, the proposed research aims to explore the changing meanings of Taiwanese/Chinese/Dual identities. Empirical analysis has demonstrated that Taiwan citizens’ identity is an important determinant to their policy stands on the island’s future relations with China. The proposed study will also examine the implications of Taiwan residents’ identity change to future cross-Strait relations.