脫歐公投對英國的衝擊：政治與經濟的分析

Abstract

英國脫離歐盟的公投意外地以過半（52%）比例通過，此舉不僅會重塑英國在世界上的位置，亦將深遠和持續影響其國內政治與經濟發展。在經濟上，公投結果已造成英鎊匯率持續下跌、商業活動減少、投資下滑與就業機會消失，尤其嚴重衝擊英國金融業。失去歐盟會員資格的情況下，倫敦金融中心恐難再維持歐元交易中心的領導地位。在政治上，如何在主張脫歐的民意與要求留歐的蘇格蘭和北愛爾蘭兩者間取得平衡，成為主政者維持聯合王國完整的最迫切挑戰。本文認為，以1985 格陵蘭脫離歐盟為例，一國之內不同地區分開處理模式在歐盟政治上並非是不可能的選項。即便如此，在對外關係上，英國仍須面對許多重大而難以意料的問題，承受龐大的經濟壓力。

The UK referendum on Brexit was passed unexpectedly by a 52% majority. This result will not only reshape the UK`s place in the world but also has profound and enduring impact on the UK politics and economy. Economically, the Brexit result has caused continuing devaluation of UK sterling and declines in contracts, investment and employment. The UK financial service sectors have been affected the most. It is difficult for the City of London to maintain its position as the leading financial center of the euro without the UK being a member of the EU. Politically, reconciling conflicting demands between the referendum result of Brexit and the request of Scotland and Northern Ireland to stay in the EU becomes the most imperative challenge for UK decision-makers. This paper uses an example of Greenland`s exit from the EC in 1985 and argues that individual approaches to EU membership for different regions in the same country is not an unimaginable option in the EU politics. Nevertheless, the UK will encounter serious and unpredictable external challenges ahead, and mounting pressures from the international economy.