中國在亞洲啟動一場對基礎建設融資的競賽

Abstract

過去70多年來，一直由布列敦森林體系機構主導的亞洲金融結構正處於轉折點。中國與其它新興經濟體不滿這些機構緩慢的改革進程，轉而建立自己的金融機構，如亞洲基礎設施投資銀行和新開發銀行。同時，中國並透過「一帶一路」和大型政策性銀行擴大雙邊融資。二戰後亞洲區域金融結構的演化約分為四個階段：1950年代和1960年代，世界銀行和國際貨幣基金組織是唯一的多邊融資機構；1966年亞洲開發銀行成立和1967年東南亞國家協會成立，標誌著區域化的開始；1997至1998年間的亞洲金融危機導致區域化進一步的深化；第四階段與中國的金融地位崛起有關，並啟動一場帶 有政治色彩的資金競賽。世界銀行、亞洲開發銀行和日本都已加強提供融資作出回應。本文檢視資金競賽的正負面影響，即有利於借款人的良性競爭影響和形成不良外部因素的非良性競爭影響。中國已引發一場融資的擴張和多元化。世界銀行和亞洲投資銀行正設法提高其效率，此一發展對貸款方有利。然而，也有初步跡象顯示，這些機構已將焦點從投資風險評估轉向錢的流動性。這可能使金融結構形成以西方陣營領導和由中國主導之機構間競爭的風險。為避免這類風險，新興的銀行和中國政策性銀行最好能沿用既定之國際貸款標準，並參與國際債務管理；同時新興銀行應在全球、區域和國家層面進行密切協調。

The Asian financial architecture is at a turning point. For over 70 years, it has been dominated by the Bretton Woods institutions. Their slow pace of reform has frustrated China and other emerging economies, which have established their own financial institutions: the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and New Development Bank. China is also expanding its bilateral financing, through One Belt, One Road and its large policy banks. The region’s architecture has evolved in four stages. In the 1950s and 1960s, the World Bank and IMF were the only multilateral financiers. The establishment of the Asian Development Bank in 1966 and ASEAN in 1967 marked the start of regionalization, which was later deepened by the 1997~1998 Asian Financial Crisis. The fourth stage is linked to China’s financial emergence, triggering a funding race with political undertones. The World Bank, the ADB and Japan have responded by stepping up financing. This article reviews the impact of the funding race in terms of healthy competition that benefits borrowers and unhealthy competition with negative externalities. China has triggered an expansion and diversification of financing. The World Bank and the ADB are improving their efficiency, which benefits the borrowers. However, there are also initial indications that their focuses on due diligence has been shifted to moving money. There is a risk that blocs will converge around Western-led and China-led institutions. To address these risks, it is important that the new banks and China’s policy banks should apply established lending standards and participate in international debt management. The established and new banks should coordinate closely at the global, regional and country levels.