俄羅斯與美國關係之研究(2009-2016年)

Abstract

摘要\n 俄美關係的起伏對整體國際局勢有高度影響，因此，21世紀的俄美關係仍為國際關係中，不可漠視的重點。雙方在諸多議題上的認知不同，彼此的國家利益也有所歧異，導致兩國關係無法穩定正向發展。普丁自1999年底掌權以來，積極恢復俄羅斯國際強權地位，雙方關係在2008年俄喬戰爭後陷入低潮。本研究有三大研究目的，第一，嘗試理解俄羅斯國家利益與對美立場。其次，了解2009至2016年俄美關係發展。最後，討論克里米亞與敘利亞事件對俄美關係之影響。\n 從多項俄羅斯官方文件中，可以得知當代俄羅斯的國家利益為提升國際地位、確保國家安全，以及國家發展，實際上三點互相影響，密不可分。在對美立場上，俄羅斯表示出對美國霸權的不滿，期望國際社會走向多極體系。另一方面，俄羅斯對美國的態度，在梅德維傑夫就任總統期間相對熱絡友善，2012年普丁再度就任總統後，態度趨向冷漠。兩國關係上，因美國歐巴馬政府提出的「重啟」，俄美關係慢慢逐漸升溫，但在2014年俄羅斯兼併克里米亞後，俄美關係急轉直下，2015年俄羅斯更直接在敘利亞投入大量軍事資源，並支持阿薩德政府，與美國支持的反政府勢力形成對立。\n 本研究認為俄羅斯兼併克里米亞一事，為造成俄美關係低落的重要因素，俄羅斯強硬的態度與行動顯現出對鞏固國家安全的重視。同時，俄美雙方在敘利亞事件上的歧異，則是長期拖累兩國關係朝向正面發展的另一因素。俄羅斯積極在敘利亞內戰上展現處理國際議題的能力，希望藉此打破國際孤立，並提高俄羅斯的國際地位。目前看來，俄美關係仍然處於低谷，並沒有改善的趨勢。

Abstract\n Russia-U.S. relations is highly influential to international affairs. Therefore, the relations between Russia and the United States in the 21st century remains crucial on the understanding of international relations. There is a discord between the two countries, which holds back a stable development of the relationship. Since late 1999, Putin took over the office, Russia strives to restore the status of a great power. Russia-U.S. relations was at the low point after the Russo-Georgian War in 2008. This study contains three research purposes: First, Russian national interests and position towards United States. Second, the evolution of the Russia-U.S. relations. Third, the impact of the annexation of Crimea and Syrian war.\n According to multiple official documents, the modern national interests of Russia include the enhance of international status, national security and national development. On the position towards United States, Russia expresses dissatisfaction to the U.S. hegemony and expects the development of multi-polar of international system. On the other side, Russia’s attitude towards U.S. turned from friendly while Medvedev served as president to unconcerned after Putin became president again in 2012. The “Reset” proposed by Obama administration boosted the Russia-U.S. relations. However, the annexation of Crimea and the conflict between the both on the Syrian war led to deterioration of the Russia-U.S. relations.\n The findings of this study reveal that the annexation of the Crimea is the main factor that cause the deterioration. Russia’s tough attitude and actions represent the eagerness to consolidate national security. Meanwhile, the divergence between Russia and U.S. on the Syrian war is the long-term factor that keeps the relations from improvement. Russia actively tries to demonstrates the ability to deal with international issues, in the hope of breaking international isolation and enhancing international status. Currently, Russia-U.S. relations remains at low level with no sign of improvement.