衝突選民與投票參與- 以台灣2004-2016總統選舉為例

Abstract

影響選民投票抉擇的變數可以分成長期因子與短期因子，長期因子有政黨認同與對於現任政府施政評價等；短期因子則包括對於候選人的評價以及競選期間所發生的事件等。先前的研究指出，當一個選民的長期因子與短期因子出現衝突，則該選民將可能不會投給較偏好的候選人。和這些研究不同的是，本論文從衝突選民的理論假設出發來分析投票參與行為。本論文認為，長期因子與短期因子若出現衝突，會使得選民產生衝突壓力，無法作出判斷，進而降低選民投票的意願。本論文聚焦「政黨認同」以及「對現任政府的回溯性評價」兩個長期因子，以及「對候選人的偏好」做為短期因子總指標，探討長期因子與短期因子發生衝突時對於選民投票參與的影響。本論文根據政黨認同與候選人偏好一致與否，以及回溯性評價與候選人偏好一致與否，將選民做若干分類進行分析。本論文利用「台灣選舉與民主化調查」 2004年、2008年、2012年與2016年總統選舉調查資料進行實證分析，發現當選民的政黨認同與候選人偏好並非一致時，選民的投票意願降低。其次，回溯性投票與候選人偏好的衝突也有相似的效果，對於執政黨的表現滿意與否，若非與候選人偏好一致，選民的投票參與意願也會下降。整體而言，本論文將衝突選民理論拓展到對於投票參與行為的解釋，除了對於投票行為研究具有若干貢獻外，也對於政黨的選舉策略提供一些啟發。

Many previous studies have tested the conflicted voter hypothesis that voters will be less likely to vote for their preferred candidate when the voters` issue positions are in conflict with their partisanship. Building on these previous works, this thesis tests the conflicted voter hypothesis on electoral participation. I contend that voters are less likely to vote when they are under pressure generated by conflicts between factors. Using Taiwan`s Election and Democratization Study (TEDS) surveys for the 2004, 2008, 2012, and 2016 presidential elections in Taiwan, the empirical analysis demonstrates that voters are less likely to vote when their partisanship is not consistent with their preferred candidate`s partisanship. Moreover, the analysis also shows that voters tend to not vote when they identify with the opposition party but are satisfied with the incumbent government`s performance, and when they identify with the incumbent party but are dissatisfied with the incumbent government`s performance. Overall, this paper not only facilitates a better understanding of conflicted voters` behavior, but also provides implications for the campaign strategies of political parties.