Causality Effect of Returns, Continuous Volatility and Jumps: Evidence from the U.S. and European Index Futures Markets

Abstract

This study examines the intraday causality between returns, volatility and jumps in the U.S. and European index futures markets during the financial crisis from 2007 to 2009. We examine whether during the financial crisis, the S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, FTSE, DAX and CAC index futures markets have a significant impact on the leverage and volatility feedback effects, as well as whether these interactions also occur between returns and jumps. The intraday behavior of 1-min, 5-min and 1-hour index futures returns, volatility and jumps is examined by employing data from the period between January 2003 and May 2014. Thus, the study covers the major upward and downward trends in the market. Our empirical data indicate the main leverage and volatility feedback effects caused by intraday volatility and jump clustering significantly increased after the financial crisis. The effects with different sampling frequencies before, during and after the financial crisis show that jumps have increased the volatility feedback effect, especially when in a 5-min and 60-min sampling frequency is used. These findings have important implications for both policymakers and investors.