Effects of CAFTA on China-Vietnam Bilateral Relations

Abstract

中越關係不時由於南海主權爭執呈現緊張，但雙方經濟相互依賴利益明顯由於2002 年以來中國東協自由貿易區建立進程而日益增長。本文嘗試從國際政治經濟視角，探討自中國東協自由貿易區創建以來中越經貿與政治關係的發展。基於中越實力不對稱，越南對中國東協自由貿易區存在高度敏感性認知，以至越南在區域經濟整合戰略上又積極尋求參與《跨太平洋夥伴關係協定》和《區域全面經濟夥伴協定》以茲平衡，中國東協自由貿易區對於中越關係發展的效益因而存在限制性。

Bilateral relations between China and Vietnam became increasingly tense in the context of the U.S. policy of Rebalancing to Asia and sovereignty disputes over land features in the South China Sea. Yet economic interdependence between the two has deepened as the China-ASEAN FTA (CAFTA) progressed. This article argues, from an international political-economics perspective, that CAFTA, based on regional economic integration and regionalism, constitutes the driving force for China-Vietnamese cooperation and prevents the potential recurrence of an armed conflict caused by bilateral disputes over South China Sea issues. On the other hand, Vietnam is sensitive about CAFTA because of the asymmetric nature of the China-Vietnamese power configuration. This sensitivity leads Vietnam to seek participation in the TPP and RCEP as a balance. The effects of CAFTA in fostering China-Vietnamese amity are therefore limited.