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Title: 實力為和平之母: 以美國的嚇阻戰略與北韓核武危機為例
Peace Through Strength: U.S. Deterrence Strategy and the North Korea Nuclear Crisis
Authors: 程鳳
Ching, Joey Lynn
Contributors: 柯惠敏
Ko, Ariel Hui-Min
Ching, Joey Lynn
Keywords: 美國
United States of America
North Korea
North Korea
US-North Korea relations
Deterrence strategy
North Korea nuclear crisis
Nuclear weapon
Date: 2018
Issue Date: 2018-07-03 17:37:57 (UTC+8)
Abstract: 這篇論文研究旨在尋求下列問題的答案:美國如何有效完成不與北韓互相攻擊的策略?從二零一七到二零一八年,北韓的核武危機喚起美國政府重新認識到核武對國家安全的重要性。北韓的核武及導彈試驗,提升了川普與金正恩之間的緊張局勢。也是首次再現自冷戰後,發生核子戰爭的可能性。當北韓的核武能力日益增強的同時,專家們建議川普當局應該改弦易轍,以嚇阻核武攻擊代替解除北韓的核武力量。

This research seeks to answer the following question: What conditions are necessary for US deterrence strategies to be effective against North Korea? The 2017-2018 North Korea nuclear crisis has revived the importance of deterrence within US national strategy. Given North Korea’s nuclear and ballistic missile tests, and the escalating tensions between the Trump Administration and Kim Jong-un’s regime, it appears that for the first time since the Cold War, nuclear war is a valid possibility. As North Korea’s nuclear capabilities became increasingly viable, scholars have encouraged the Trump Administration to shift its focus away from compelling denuclearization to deterring nuclear attack. Therefore, this paper serves two purposes. First, this paper proposes a criterion for effective deterrence comprised of four factors that increase threat credibility: military capability, political will, perception, and legitimacy. Second, this criterion is used to evaluate US strategic deterrence under the Trump Administration, and its influence on US-North Korea relations.
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