個人素質與在地連結：台灣六都市議員候選人背景與選舉表現之相關性

Abstract

本文關注民國99年與103年的直轄市議員選舉中，候選人個人背景與其選舉表現的關聯。本研究透過選舉公報來收集客觀的候選人背景資料，之後透過量化實證研究的方式，了解這些變數對於候選人選舉表現的重要性。而候選人背景主要分為以下三類：候選人基本資訊、個人素質變數、在地連結程度。此外，本研究也使用七分制來綜合評估個人素質與在地連結的情況，並且藉此釐清候選人各項背景在直轄市議員選舉中的影響程度。除了釐清六都候選人背景影響其選舉表現的整體趨勢外，本研究也另外處理兩個問題，首先關注於台灣兩大政黨，中國國民黨、民主進步黨的候選人差異；接著則依據台灣北、中、南三個地理區位來劃分候選人，觀察地理區位之間是否存在趨勢上的差異。\n本研究有以下幾個發現：一、直轄市議員候選人是否受到兩大政黨提名，將會是影響其是否能夠當選的關鍵因素。二、候選人個人素質以及在地連結程度，皆會與候選人之選舉表現高度相關。在直轄市議員選舉中，又以候選人在地連結的重要性略高於候選人個人素質。三、過去傳統上對於兩大黨候選人的印象（例如：國民黨教育程度較高等），在直轄市議員層級的選舉中似乎不再存在。四、候選人受到兩大黨提名，將能夠抵銷其政治經驗不足所存在的劣勢。五、在台灣三個地理區位中，北部地區之候選人，相較於中南部地區，在教育程度、候選人個人素質等變數表現相對較高。

This thesis uses 2010 and 2014 Taiwan special municipal election as research sample and tries to figure out the relation between candidate’s background and their electoral performance. In this thesis we first collect objective candidate’s objective background information through election bulletins and then use quantitative methods to test the importance of each variable. The candidate’s background variables are divided into the following three categories: basic information, personal quality, and local connection. Furthermore, this study also deals with two other issues. First, we focus on the differences between the two major political parties in Taiwan, KMT and DPP. Second, we divide the candidate sample into three geographical regions: north, middle, and south regions, in order to observe whether there are different patterns across regions.\nThe thesis presents the following findings: First, whether a candidate is nominated by the two major political parties will be the key variable affecting his or her electoral performance. Second, both the personal quality and the local connection are highly correlated with candidate’s electoral performance. Third, some stereotypes of the two major parties’ candidates seem to no longer exist in 2010 and 2014 Taiwan special municipal election. Forth, nominations of the two major parties will compensate candidates’ lack of political experience. Fifth, among the three geographical regions in Taiwan, candidates in northern region have relatively higher education level and personal quality.